Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 December 8-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe386fb11e1e45bb6e2dcf97e784e64431d0882fac40389de05787086139d9e4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $155,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $148,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…c34dbacked No | 72c | 9,872$7,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,740.12 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +4.7wins | +0.27per pick | 61cpaid | +38%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x83e1…099bbacked Yes | 2c | 5,100$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca5…8727backed Yes | 10c | 4,500$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +280.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed No | 71c | 3,773$2,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.58 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 19c | 3,440$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.01 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8012…5b01backed Yes | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6125…fb3abacked Yes | 11c | 2,999$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…382bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,399$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb718…dde1backed Yes | 49c | 1,563$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…f848backed Yes | 2c | 1,027$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f6…326dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…09f6backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd55…fc45backed No | 68c | 999.57$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 901$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b99…1cd7backed Yes | 6c | 897.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.87 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd810…1bedbacked Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…af79backed No | 50c | 758$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa290…f0dfbacked Yes | 5c | 700$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 9c | 610$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 6c | 572.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 143 | 1.4%2 W · 141 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 42c | 528.93$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.37 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65eb…3cecbacked Yes | 4c | 500.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 8c | 500$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 78 | 1.3%1 W · 77 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 8c | 500$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 120 | 3.3%4 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 7c | 499.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 107 | 3.7%4 W · 103 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 8c | 499.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 14c | 348.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6d…1a39backed Yes | 13c | 346.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes | 25c | 323.16$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 59 | 8.5%5 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 65c | 300.59$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.39 | 84 | 70.2%59 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa9…cac0backed No | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b0d1backed Yes | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -76%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14b8…83a4backed Yes | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e01…f5bdbacked Yes | 17c | 220.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c04…adafbacked Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5df…87f4backed Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…43d7backed Yes | 48c | 190.52$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 66c | 190.14$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.75 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ba…fd9fbacked Yes | 55c | 178.05$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x140b…8155backed Yes | 12c | 170$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed Yes | 65c | 150$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…752ebacked Yes | 13c | 148.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe1…1a78backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6078…a677backed Yes | 13c | 115.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…9e8abacked Yes | 29c | 115.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf975…3d93backed Yes | 45c | 107.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…e265backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…6c58backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf4…cc11backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd99…8b4bbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08d3…6996backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…33c1backed Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 103 | 15.5%16 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce87…2f3fbacked Yes | 19c | 78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa3…35fcbacked Yes | 43c | 58.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d97…9498backed Yes | 56c | 54.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9842…5ac8backed Yes | 47c | 42.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2e…4494backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5379…a031backed Yes | 54c | 39.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 45c | 35.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb0…baa8backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d831backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06b6…1332backed No | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…d4e3backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 December 8-14?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 December 8-14?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 December 8-14?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 December 8-14?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,700 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 December 8-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.