Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 December 8-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e8d36cf0b9ee59508056f289f8d1ea0e99274c6544bca2adb888d693f9582ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 13c | 12,508$1,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,627.94 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca5…8727backed Yes | 7c | 10,720$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.79 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +280.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dba…b54dbacked No | 76c | 2,632$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.33 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…9721backed Yes | 45c | 1,760$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd810…1bedbacked Yes | 6c | 1,641$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 3c | 1,590$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 25c | 1,016$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.36 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 5c | 900$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 143 | 1.4%2 W · 141 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b1…413abacked No | 55c | 880$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes | 14c | 685.18$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 59 | 8.5%5 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 80c | 643$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.27 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…382bbacked Yes | 4c | 510$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ac…aa06backed Yes | 33c | 453.54$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.67 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 28c | 453$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.72 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa9…cac0backed Yes | 31c | 400$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eec…d271backed Yes | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…e4dabacked Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…c3ddbacked Yes | 5c | 265$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +183.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad36…6fd9backed Yes | 29c | 252.31$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 74c | 196.39$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…6c58backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 65c | 155$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08d3…6996backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed Yes | 40c | 150$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82b5…1542backed Yes | 35c | 143.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…e265backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe5…ea69backed No | 79c | 92.13$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa3…35fcbacked Yes | 21c | 70.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 57c | 61.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5379…a031backed Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d831backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…cf51backed No | 70c | 17.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 December 8-14?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 December 8-14?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 December 8-14?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 December 8-14?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,700 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 December 8-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.