Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 December 8-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x958eeb0e5b28ac0185266a9f0113155386f57a73696be8f8517e7ece433fc765
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd55…fc45backed No | 53c | 1,500$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc006…1c7abacked Yes | 79c | 1,500$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 76c | 1,187$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.53 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked No | 7c | 1,000$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 143 | 1.4%2 W · 141 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…b08fbacked Yes | 30c | 970$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be2…5fa6backed Yes | 79c | 757.45$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked No | 20c | 574.38$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.29 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 67c | 500$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 24c | 499.8$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.57 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 67c | 499$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.98 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x534d…a7d3backed No | 69c | 400$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa9…cac0backed Yes | 34c | 320$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.68 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 8c | 310$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 107 | 3.7%4 W · 103 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 12c | 299.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 36c | 253.61$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.05 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…7287backed Yes | 76c | 237.5$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f7…4445backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…09f6backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf346…8232backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…cf51backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…3850backed No | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e0…4e5abacked Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed No | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5379…a031backed Yes | 32c | 55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x08d3…6996backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 50c | 43.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b18…941bbacked Yes | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24a6…0e2dbacked No | 72c | 36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 December 8-14?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 December 8-14?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 December 8-14?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,700 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 December 8-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.