TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb6f7…4445

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
61
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Venezuela, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Venezuela at 54 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT2540%10 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+83.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$14.13
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$60.6
Seeker FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Football.Fun FDV above $70M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$32
Hyperliquid listed on Coinbase in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$242Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+65.3%+$158
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+47.1%+$64
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+194.1%+$264
VOOI FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+203%+$100.5
Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$36
Over $50M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Over $200M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$49.95
Will Almanak FDV above $50M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+900%+$217.17
Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+900%+$450
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$237Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+26.6%+$63
Over $1B committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$182.33
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+1,150%+$1,840
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$133.5
Over $200M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$21.8
Over $40M committed to the Solomon public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$134
Over $20M committed to the Solomon public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$12.9
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$43.11
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
All 25 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-81.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.41
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$40
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Will Dustin Henderson die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$10.5
Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m and 123m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$33.94
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$30.1
All 8 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+103.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+29.9%+$5.97
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+177%+$177.03
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$52
Will Arsenal win on 2025-12-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+42.9%+$24
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+190.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+190.6%+$85.77
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$46.14
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Dec 22, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Dec 28, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$47.99
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.