Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $3,300 December 8-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bfb1e6588764bdd99f5bc6db1dcf1a8c8850a9898bd04147699f45c89e963a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x373e…9c9ebacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 49c | 4,961$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,510.35 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed No | 10c | 4,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked No | 17c | 1,432$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.47 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x534d…a7d3backed No | 50c | 700$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 49c | 479.54$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.75 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf975…3d93backed Yes | 51c | 300$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked No | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 143 | 1.4%2 W · 141 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x905a…dff1backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa9…cac0backed No | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf346…8232backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 41c | 68.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e0…4e5abacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 52c | 31.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5379…a031backed Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebe5…ea69backed No | 51c | 23.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 December 8-14?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 December 8-14?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 December 8-14?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,700 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 December 8-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.