TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,157,926
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,598,199

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,157,926 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 270 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf657…108ebacked Yes3c97,044$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-54.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3761…bb98backed Yes3c87,822$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2b6…80b9backed Yes4c80,991$2,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,896.7630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes4c60,458$2,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,155.68922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick7cpaid+164.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0c1…8a69backed Yes2c50,008$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8560…0b3ebacked Yes8c49,758$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffa…b3c4backed Yes3c46,796$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.411915.8%3 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+71.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5572…984ebacked Yes4c45,175$1,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,584.68110%0 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3440…675dbacked Yes7c43,847$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,90010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71f8…55ffbacked Yes0c35,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352119%4 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-59%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes2c33,900$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71810812%13 W · 95 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes3c33,000$1,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,038.15616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick6cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x758c…074abacked Yes6c27,036$1,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,609.512213.6%3 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+60.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfb…a4d7backed Yes3c25,170$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes10c25,145$2,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,508.724517.8%8 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb515…f7f9backed Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd729…a781backed Yes7c22,696$1,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,555.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf88f…1f8abacked Yes3c21,774$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.42250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes2c21,773$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.99140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcbf9…5913backed Yes2c21,121$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d4…fa2bbacked Yes6c20,939$1,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,181.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa71f…b09bbacked Yes4c19,833$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8642…1c8dbacked Yes3c19,550$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf503…39e2backed Yes1c18,001$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.88714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick8cpaid-58.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x877c…007cbacked Yes6c17,568$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.1360%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66af…cecebacked Yes8c16,936$1,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,408.09520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes5c16,218$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.39303.3%1 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick12cpaid-92.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x92a5…011bbacked Yes4c15,551$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed Yes7c15,469$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,043.431323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-44.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes4c14,839$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.58905.6%5 W · 85 L+0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-82.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8bf…8461backed Yes1c14,286$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f23…b36ebacked Yes5c14,265$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes10c13,765$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,440.1725528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2978…645fbacked Yes1c12,500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79ff…1603backed Yes5c11,485$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f4a…4500backed Yes9c11,111$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb43…49e9backed Yes2c10,733$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb0e…f946backed Yes0c10,050$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8d4…e530backed Yes2c10,002$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf740…b668backed Yes5c10,000$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2353…c73dbacked Yes4c9,983$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78a3…ef81backed Yes5c9,912$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0488…bab2backed Yes3c9,831$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3c…f008backed Yes3c9,734$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cd7…9c85backed Yes4c9,647$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.35911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-83.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6725…4b40backed Yes27c9,586$2,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,582.4670%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e80…f8cdbacked Yes3c9,561$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x210d…a85cbacked Yes3c9,410$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8662…c94fbacked Yes1c9,225$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.32160%0 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8423…f488backed Yes4c8,949$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes12c8,912$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036.912412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-28.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a28…03bdbacked Yes5c8,776$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8a6…2c4ebacked Yes6c8,659$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Yes3c8,379$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b69…5cbbbacked Yes3c8,312$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe873…e652backed Yes6c8,248$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc023…ccf8backed Yes17c7,722$1,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,281.3680%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes2c7,504$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1209413.8%13 W · 81 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xccdb…a111backed Yes3c7,403$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b92…42e6backed Yes7c7,280$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.84511.1%5 W · 40 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-75%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcbd6…c081backed Yes2c6,725$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85ed…16b1backed Yes3c6,667$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b1a…3852backed Yes3c6,633$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1692…05e7backed Yes3c6,553$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x953d…c08fbacked Yes1c5,807$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e3e…8694backed Yes12c5,507$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc4c9…0cdebacked Yes2c5,433$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes15c5,333$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.957525.3%19 W · 56 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39d9…a2d3backed Yes9c5,329$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.44520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes2c5,200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.4440%0 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10368.3%3 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-48.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0910…ce1cbacked Yes1c5,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68a1…7c68backed Yes3c5,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick22cpaid-87.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes4c4,957$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.1790%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5891…ae01backed Yes19c4,565$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.3450%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x069f…1f7fbacked Yes2c4,334$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ed1…9d62backed Yes3c4,111$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes8c4,070$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.6621426.2%56 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes2c4,044$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50a0…f233backed Yes2c4,035$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6224.5%1 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick13cpaid-86.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04c1…8e10backed Yes5c4,002$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c3,923$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.065327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb37e…8d2fbacked Yes6c3,917$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.58100%0 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11d9…0b5dbacked Yes6c3,912$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x711c…ee35backed Yes3c3,846$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x938a…21dcbacked Yes3c3,764$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7da9…05dfbacked Yes6c3,582$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80ea…f25fbacked Yes3c3,392$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cd8…9341backed Yes3c3,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x134f…6b07backed Yes2c3,270$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfde6…7ed6backed Yes20c3,200$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6453724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-49.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e51…27a8backed Yes3c3,053$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb898…1288backed Yes3c3,002$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.56119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-63.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bd1…f366backed Yes5c3,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15060%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c08…3afcbacked No78c3,000$2,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-42.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a10…5a39backed Yes2c2,915$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes3c2,913$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.53752.7%2 W · 73 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-75.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45e0…5434backed Yes4c2,887$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf97…9f57backed Yes3c2,700$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf41d…8fe1backed Yes2c2,640$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.