Ukraine · resolved market
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63c6bddf7681c31a5a6be4a54bc7c682f7d171be45eae0178ff09d60fee21ef2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,157,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,598,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,157,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 270 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf657…108ebacked Yes | 3c | 97,044$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3761…bb98backed Yes | 3c | 87,822$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b6…80b9backed Yes | 4c | 80,991$2,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,896.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 4c | 60,458$2,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,155.68 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 7cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c1…8a69backed Yes | 2c | 50,008$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8560…0b3ebacked Yes | 8c | 49,758$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffa…b3c4backed Yes | 3c | 46,796$1,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.41 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5572…984ebacked Yes | 4c | 45,175$1,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,584.68 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3440…675dbacked Yes | 7c | 43,847$2,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,900 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…55ffbacked Yes | 0c | 35,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -59%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 2c | 33,900$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718 | 108 | 12%13 W · 95 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 3c | 33,000$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758c…074abacked Yes | 6c | 27,036$1,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,609.51 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfb…a4d7backed Yes | 3c | 25,170$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 10c | 25,145$2,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,508.72 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb515…f7f9backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd729…a781backed Yes | 7c | 22,696$1,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,555.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf88f…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 21,774$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 21,773$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.99 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf9…5913backed Yes | 2c | 21,121$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…fa2bbacked Yes | 6c | 20,939$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa71f…b09bbacked Yes | 4c | 19,833$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8642…1c8dbacked Yes | 3c | 19,550$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 1c | 18,001$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x877c…007cbacked Yes | 6c | 17,568$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66af…cecebacked Yes | 8c | 16,936$1,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,408.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes | 5c | 16,218$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.39 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92a5…011bbacked Yes | 4c | 15,551$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…f867backed Yes | 7c | 15,469$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.43 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 4c | 14,839$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.58 | 90 | 5.6%5 W · 85 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bf…8461backed Yes | 1c | 14,286$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f23…b36ebacked Yes | 5c | 14,265$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 10c | 13,765$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440.17 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2978…645fbacked Yes | 1c | 12,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ff…1603backed Yes | 5c | 11,485$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4a…4500backed Yes | 9c | 11,111$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…49e9backed Yes | 2c | 10,733$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0e…f946backed Yes | 0c | 10,050$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d4…e530backed Yes | 2c | 10,002$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf740…b668backed Yes | 5c | 10,000$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2353…c73dbacked Yes | 4c | 9,983$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78a3…ef81backed Yes | 5c | 9,912$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0488…bab2backed Yes | 3c | 9,831$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…f008backed Yes | 3c | 9,734$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…9c85backed Yes | 4c | 9,647$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.35 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6725…4b40backed Yes | 27c | 9,586$2,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,582.46 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…f8cdbacked Yes | 3c | 9,561$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x210d…a85cbacked Yes | 3c | 9,410$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…c94fbacked Yes | 1c | 9,225$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.32 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8423…f488backed Yes | 4c | 8,949$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce68…f6b8backed Yes | 12c | 8,912$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.91 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a28…03bdbacked Yes | 5c | 8,776$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a6…2c4ebacked Yes | 6c | 8,659$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Yes | 3c | 8,379$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b69…5cbbbacked Yes | 3c | 8,312$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe873…e652backed Yes | 6c | 8,248$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed Yes | 17c | 7,722$1,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,281.36 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 2c | 7,504$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdb…a111backed Yes | 3c | 7,403$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 7c | 7,280$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.8 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd6…c081backed Yes | 2c | 6,725$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ed…16b1backed Yes | 3c | 6,667$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1a…3852backed Yes | 3c | 6,633$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1692…05e7backed Yes | 3c | 6,553$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x953d…c08fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,807$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…8694backed Yes | 12c | 5,507$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…0cdebacked Yes | 2c | 5,433$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 15c | 5,333$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.95 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d9…a2d3backed Yes | 9c | 5,329$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 2c | 5,200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0910…ce1cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a1…7c68backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 4c | 4,957$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.17 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5891…ae01backed Yes | 19c | 4,565$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.34 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x069f…1f7fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,334$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…9d62backed Yes | 3c | 4,111$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 4,070$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.66 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 2c | 4,044$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a0…f233backed Yes | 2c | 4,035$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04c1…8e10backed Yes | 5c | 4,002$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,923$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.06 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb37e…8d2fbacked Yes | 6c | 3,917$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.58 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d9…0b5dbacked Yes | 6c | 3,912$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…ee35backed Yes | 3c | 3,846$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938a…21dcbacked Yes | 3c | 3,764$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da9…05dfbacked Yes | 6c | 3,582$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ea…f25fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,392$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd8…9341backed Yes | 3c | 3,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x134f…6b07backed Yes | 2c | 3,270$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfde6…7ed6backed Yes | 20c | 3,200$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e51…27a8backed Yes | 3c | 3,053$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb898…1288backed Yes | 3c | 3,002$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.56 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd1…f366backed Yes | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…3afcbacked No | 78c | 3,000$2,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a10…5a39backed Yes | 2c | 2,915$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,913$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.53 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e0…5434backed Yes | 4c | 2,887$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf97…9f57backed Yes | 3c | 2,700$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41d…8fe1backed Yes | 2c | 2,640$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.