Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $2.80 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa50a02add8215dd090c14cdd5f3c4b0f3b3b9edd46efecf7aea61c30ccaa5c6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $158,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $165,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 1c | 9,971$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…5ab8backed Yes | 7c | 8,931$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 7,856$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…48e9backed Yes | 4c | 6,948$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed Yes | 6c | 6,498$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.99 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eee…eeb6backed Yes | 7c | 3,659$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.66 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9367…78e1backed Yes | 2c | 3,198$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…0f53backed Yes | 1c | 2,940$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ed…10b4backed Yes | 4c | 1,920$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.26 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,717$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f67…2fd3backed Yes | 2c | 1,548$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c9…d064backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x984d…b682backed Yes | 7c | 1,495$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.84 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…657cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,483$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 4c | 1,466$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.36 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,440$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.91 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,420$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.45 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 3c | 1,295$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +8.5wins | +0.15per pick | 3cpaid | +321.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 1,272$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…c33fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,179$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…f5e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,147$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | +10.4wins | +0.17per pick | 4cpaid | +300.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 1,069$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…b686backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b6…9272backed Yes | 5c | 895.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +114%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7349…8891backed Yes | 27c | 720.01$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…e2c6backed Yes | 6c | 523.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 93 | 3.2%3 W · 90 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…b8f8backed Yes | 5c | 408.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 6c | 403.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 85 | 5.9%5 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6757…5399backed Yes | 3c | 318.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…5ce5backed Yes | 10c | 315.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +222.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 5c | 278.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…563dbacked Yes | 5c | 272.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd02a…9c5bbacked Yes | 7c | 269.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b6…065cbacked Yes | 4c | 250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a7…d2ccbacked Yes | 5c | 201.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fdc3backed Yes | 7c | 156.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 14cpaid | +131%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe98d…8fe0backed Yes | 7c | 149.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 137.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…93d9backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a82…a412backed Yes | 33c | 52.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in January?this page
- Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.60 in January?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.80 in January?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 in January?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.20 in January?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.40 in January?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.60 in January?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $1.80 in January?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.00 in January?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.20 in January?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.40 in January?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.60 in January?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in January?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.20 in January?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.40 in January?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.60 in January?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.00 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.