Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $2.40 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1897fc8c06cdf21f5e783f3509f5028e9ced64c2b104423d0a19b8d5873cfe7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 73c | 6,930$5,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,070.58 | 130 | 53.8%70 W · 60 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5682…97afbacked Yes | 73c | 6,434$4,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,758 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6af5…42cebacked No | 41c | 4,084$1,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,683.02 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +5.6wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed Yes | 27c | 3,871$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,825.86 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 3,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4a…621bbacked No | 77c | 2,703$2,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,081.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30c…ddfbbacked No | 77c | 2,000$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,202$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 8c | 1,141$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.97 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…368abacked No | 71c | 400$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed No | 16c | 274$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 11c | 268.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed No | 72c | 160$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 16c | 134.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 24c | 131.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2cca…b785backed Yes | 41c | 114.46$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.17 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 57c | 113.28$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.57 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd258…fd7dbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…93c7backed No | 51c | 88.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 26c | 75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.88 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047d…a8b7backed Yes | 31c | 70.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed No | 73c | 68.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb064…599bbacked Yes | 27c | 55.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 25cpaid | +161.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7f…0040backed Yes | 33c | 52.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd626…0c37backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…d7dfbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c50…482dbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc60…a473backed No | 51c | 23.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad3…039bbacked No | 69c | 21.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +5.3wins | +0.33per pick | 61cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $2.40 in January?this page
- Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.60 in January?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.80 in January?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 in January?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.20 in January?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.40 in January?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.60 in January?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $1.80 in January?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.00 in January?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.20 in January?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.60 in January?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in January?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in January?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.20 in January?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.40 in January?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.60 in January?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.00 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.