Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP dip to $1.60 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f75aa239977affe7aab564d83766f5e4f9903d4156a425ba5293d4e5ae47758
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $523,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $556,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $523,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 28c | 145,059$40,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104,819.65 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3526…aababacked Yes | 13c | 33,819$4,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,525.57 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +8.0wins | +0.15per pick | 11cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6af5…42cebacked Yes | 47c | 10,049$4,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,288.53 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +5.6wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7558…2d70backed Yes | 6c | 7,176$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,738.05 | 110 | 5.5%6 W · 104 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed No | 62c | 6,988$4,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,337.67 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88cc…b996backed No | 0c | 6,344$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 4,706$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,411.96 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c2…561cbacked Yes | 8c | 3,700$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,392.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,104.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 3,253$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,063.64 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…ab47backed Yes | 18c | 2,862$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,359.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,830$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,649.76 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x449a…a3c8backed Yes | 8c | 1,995$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,831.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,119.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb43c…1caebacked Yes | 5c | 1,951$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,850.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 4cpaid | +550.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 7c | 1,773$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,656.93 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd86c…d09abacked Yes | 8c | 1,769$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,624.37 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5642…d4cdbacked Yes | 7c | 1,483$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,385.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 4cpaid | +405.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2766…5588backed Yes | 7c | 1,479$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,369.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +350.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 1,400$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,382.95 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…5d8fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,306$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +770.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…e1fdbacked No | 1c | 1,246$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 21cpaid | +120%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 1,069$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.26 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf584…76a2backed Yes | 10c | 1,042$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.77 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 7c | 1,026$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.31 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…e84dbacked No | 40c | 1,000$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.73 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x512f…a99cbacked No | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aee…a444backed Yes | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c26…c399backed Yes | 7c | 947.1$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.94 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +4.9wins | +0.70per pick | 16cpaid | +704%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa162…bab2backed Yes | 62c | 884.09$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.95 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 6c | 840.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.54 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +8.5wins | +0.15per pick | 3cpaid | +321.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfda5…966cbacked Yes | 8c | 812.26$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +495.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 10c | 728.75$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.95 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…365bbacked Yes | 3c | 710$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.17 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 36cpaid | +458%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 700$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.5 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce1…f25fbacked Yes | 15c | 649.13$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.96 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 12c | 617.77$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.08 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…f5e7backed Yes | 5c | 605.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | +10.4wins | +0.17per pick | 4cpaid | +300.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x703c…ae21backed Yes | 11c | 540$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +814.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…e2c6backed Yes | 6c | 484.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.28 | 93 | 3.2%3 W · 90 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc029…0533backed No | 41c | 484.26$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes | 7c | 431$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 7cpaid | +504%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x417d…3a5cbacked Yes | 3c | 423.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.97per pick | 3cpaid | +3,746.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8db…ddfcbacked Yes | 17c | 422.42$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.42 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 7c | 400$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.2 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd79a…440abacked Yes | 10c | 386.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +396%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…27ffbacked Yes | 5c | 374.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,979.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0625…7965backed Yes | 6c | 350.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +777.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde8c…bf43backed Yes | 66c | 319.61$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aae…319cbacked Yes | 8c | 313.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 10c | 311.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.51 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +22.9wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 299.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.42 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…2e4cbacked Yes | 19c | 267.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6a…8777backed Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.53per pick | 14cpaid | +421.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 13c | 227.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.07 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.22per pick | 22cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x44d3…e051backed No | 17c | 202.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 5c | 200.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.35 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.1 | 63 | 6.3%4 W · 59 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…3ffebacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.6 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4171…d197backed Yes | 7c | 162.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.58per pick | 17cpaid | +539.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabd1…870ebacked Yes | 67c | 114.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59cf…71dabacked Yes | 66c | 110$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7c…ce17backed Yes | 56c | 106.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c4…1378backed No | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf62a…aecfbacked Yes | 21c | 96.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.15 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +4.7wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +443.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xceb9…5d53backed Yes | 13c | 81.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0625…0503backed Yes | 20c | 50.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…96febacked Yes | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…9121backed Yes | 71c | 42.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…0287backed Yes | 49c | 41.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3205…cc50backed No | 65c | 40.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9021…bf4ebacked Yes | 56c | 37.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +247.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c4…5a94backed Yes | 60c | 37.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6634…4b4bbacked Yes | 59c | 34.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba3…269ebacked Yes | 67c | 30.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ae…1cdbbacked Yes | 79c | 22.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP dip to $1.60 in January?this page
- Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.60 in January?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.80 in January?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 in January?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.20 in January?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.40 in January?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.80 in January?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.00 in January?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.20 in January?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.40 in January?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.60 in January?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in January?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in January?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.20 in January?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.40 in January?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.60 in January?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.00 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.