Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP dip to $1.40 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbaec02ea69f33c2cb2234be6b7b16a8856326f2396146a6fe50de6c024da08e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $319,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $298,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $319,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3526…aababacked Yes | 2c | 36,132$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.08 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +8.0wins | +0.15per pick | 11cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 13,353$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.63 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f05…8a73backed Yes | 16c | 11,804$1,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,838 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +165.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4163…1adabacked Yes | 2c | 8,826$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +202.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7558…2d70backed Yes | 3c | 8,724$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.99 | 110 | 5.5%6 W · 104 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…01ebbacked Yes | 3c | 6,165$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a0…55a3backed Yes | 3c | 6,115$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 2c | 5,557$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 5,049$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x746f…f8e1backed Yes | 1c | 4,640$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13ec…5fd2backed Yes | 1c | 4,640$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,545$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf023…8e33backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +126%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7909…de2ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,404$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…c27ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,274$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 70 | 2.9%2 W · 68 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1f…d7cebacked Yes | 3c | 3,100$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +176.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed No | 69c | 3,000$2,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 2,626$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 2c | 2,350$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +8.5wins | +0.15per pick | 3cpaid | +321.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x50b6…9272backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +114%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,901$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e5…dad8backed Yes | 2c | 1,421$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c9…d064backed Yes | 2c | 1,227$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…f5e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,127$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | +10.4wins | +0.17per pick | 4cpaid | +300.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 2c | 1,125$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,059$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed1d…8707backed Yes | 2c | 932.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 2c | 860.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd86c…d09abacked Yes | 3c | 730$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6634…4b4bbacked Yes | 3c | 672.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d2…6536backed Yes | 5c | 607.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd30b…3309backed Yes | 3c | 575.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceb9…5d53backed Yes | 2c | 440.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd505…d392backed Yes | 4c | 413.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 85 | 5.9%5 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b6…ae4ebacked Yes | 7c | 378.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18c4…e9c5backed Yes | 7c | 272.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a7…d2ccbacked Yes | 8c | 270$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fb…100cbacked Yes | 5c | 244.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ed…10b4backed Yes | 5c | 202.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 189.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP dip to $1.40 in January?this page
- Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.60 in January?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.80 in January?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 in January?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.20 in January?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.60 in January?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $1.80 in January?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.00 in January?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.20 in January?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.40 in January?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.60 in January?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in January?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in January?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.20 in January?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.40 in January?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.60 in January?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.00 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.