NFL · resolved market
Spread: Falcons (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7e3f4b2a9d174e17cd4384db55bae6807c914be2fd879e32e6abea63024c2b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Saintsof Falcons, Saints
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Falcons | 49c | 18,912$9,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,330.77 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Saints | 51c | 11,000$5,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,390 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Falcons | 49c | 10,972$5,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,377.68 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Saints | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,800 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Saints | 52c | 9,000$4,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,289.46 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Falcons | 48c | 7,175$3,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,445.84 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed Falcons | 52c | 2,885$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Saints | 48c | 2,471$1,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,285.09 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…ba70backed Saints | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Saints | 50c | 1,708$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.71 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Saints | 53c | 1,415$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.09 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Saints | 49c | 1,104$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.04 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafdc…c2a2backed Falcons | 48c | 914.58$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Saints | 51c | 858.91$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.04 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Saints | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Saints | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Saints | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.7 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Falcons | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Saints | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 208 | 51%106 W · 102 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Falcons | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Saints | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…22eabacked Saints | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…f8d5backed Saints | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Saints | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Falcons | 50c | 134$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.49 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60d…2204backed Saints | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Saints | 49c | 81.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Falcons | 47c | 64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Falcons | 50c | 53.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…b31fbacked Saints | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Saints | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Saints | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b7…fa4bbacked Falcons | 51c | 39.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed Saints | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…d9f6backed Saints | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Falcons (-4.5)this page
- Saints vs. FalconsFalcons won
- Saints vs. Falcons: O/U 36.5Under won
- Saints vs. Falcons: O/U 43.5Under won
- Saints vs. Falcons: O/U 44.5Under won
- Saints vs. Falcons: O/U 45.5Under won
- Spread: Falcons (-2.5)Saints won
- Spread: Falcons (-3.5)Saints won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.