NFL · resolved market
Spread: Falcons (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ce455f4d47cbd08e7f5192093e90a34bf5803635b31cbb91519ecdd037c96bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Saintsof Falcons, Saints
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Falcons | 60c | 6,283$3,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,749.84 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Saints | 40c | 2,840$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,703.74 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Saints | 38c | 2,580$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.6 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Falcons | 62c | 2,500$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Saints | 38c | 1,463$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.73 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Saints | 41c | 1,359$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.81 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Saints | 39c | 1,008$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.49 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Saints | 40c | 844$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…50aabacked Saints | 38c | 780$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.6 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Falcons | 62c | 595$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.9 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Saints | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Saints | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Saints | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.8 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Falcons | 63c | 404.76$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Falcons | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Saints | 38c | 322.58$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Falcons | 62c | 241.94$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9038…f74cbacked Saints | 43c | 233.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.09 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Saints | 42c | 222$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.76 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Falcons | 62c | 161.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Saints | 41c | 150$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…b2d7backed Falcons | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Saints | 40c | 129$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Saints | 38c | 114$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.68 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Saints | 40c | 113.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.29 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Falcons | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Falcons | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Saints | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Saints | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x036a…4c9abacked Falcons | 59c | 84.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Saints | 40c | 84.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0d…b99abacked Falcons | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Falcons | 72c | 76.1$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Saints | 41c | 73.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…9176backed Falcons | 67c | 66.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Saints | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0b4ebacked Saints | 39c | 59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Saints | 41c | 53.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Falcons | 55c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x848f…612fbacked Falcons | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -9.4wins | -0.33per pick | 64cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Saints | 40c | 30.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…c992backed Falcons | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…1866backed Falcons | 62c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…0da6backed Falcons | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Falcons | 62c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Saints | 45c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc39b…5754backed Falcons | 60c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d19…8b58backed Falcons | 60c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6162…e856backed Falcons | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf683…f2dfbacked Falcons | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked Falcons | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Falcons (-2.5)this page
- Saints vs. FalconsFalcons won
- Saints vs. Falcons: O/U 36.5Under won
- Saints vs. Falcons: O/U 43.5Under won
- Saints vs. Falcons: O/U 44.5Under won
- Saints vs. Falcons: O/U 45.5Under won
- Spread: Falcons (-3.5)Saints won
- Spread: Falcons (-4.5)Saints won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.