NFL · resolved market
Saints vs. Falcons: O/U 45.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0efba7118ff2d5a1cc52f21fcf2da328d062d4396986c6d79948c1e2108fa8ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 40c | 15,057$6,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,022.02 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe916…4563backed Under | 60c | 13,249$8,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,248.61 | 69 | 65.2%45 W · 24 L | +9.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ae…3020backed Under | 59c | 5,085$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,084.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 42c | 1,215$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.21 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 40c | 1,002$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.69 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 40c | 824.14$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.66 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 57c | 160$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Over | 42c | 121$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5682…97afbacked Under | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.32per pick | 58cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6564…8846backed Under | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Over | 41c | 68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…1ff7backed Under | 58c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.41per pick | 55cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c27…b3c6backed Under | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…2f86backed Under | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d2…dc9bbacked Under | 58c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080f…c226backed Under | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb351…5f41backed Under | 60c | 17.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Saints vs. Falcons: O/U 45.5this page
- Saints vs. FalconsFalcons won
- Saints vs. Falcons: O/U 36.5Under won
- Saints vs. Falcons: O/U 43.5Under won
- Saints vs. Falcons: O/U 44.5Under won
- Spread: Falcons (-2.5)Saints won
- Spread: Falcons (-3.5)Saints won
- Spread: Falcons (-4.5)Saints won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.