NFL · resolved market
Saints vs. Falcons: O/U 43.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4e788e52efc2b5abed0eebdbc3b55a4117dae36f37932efc143211b01b03da7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,026
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,026 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Under | 51c | 31,415$15,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,449.95 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 6,383$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,120.01 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Over | 49c | 4,592$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Under | 52c | 3,825$2,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,820.55 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2f…be86backed Over | 49c | 3,536$1,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,732.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710c…892cbacked Over | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Over | 50c | 2,656$1,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,328 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 2,201$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.78 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x685d…22d6backed Over | 49c | 2,020$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 72 | 59.7%43 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Over | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Over | 48c | 2,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.99 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 50c | 1,668$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.52 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 1,017$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.21 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 50c | 997.99$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 49c | 961$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.23 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 731.29$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.02 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 48c | 625$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 513.02$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.15 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed3…bffcbacked Over | 49c | 495.92$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b7…fa4bbacked Under | 52c | 475.62$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.05 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 41c | 240.91$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…41f6backed Under | 52c | 230.77$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.77 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9935…8fb9backed Over | 49c | 213$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…7b09backed Under | 52c | 213$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa395…a298backed Under | 51c | 209$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.41 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…369ebacked Over | 50c | 209$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa241…c62bbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf34f…4d6ebacked Over | 50c | 200.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb781…9ba9backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 48c | 199.22$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.63 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44de…e77fbacked Under | 52c | 197$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…bf14backed Over | 49c | 197$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…e9f3backed Under | 51c | 195$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbad8…c5c3backed Over | 50c | 195$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d6…9e5bbacked Under | 51c | 194$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcad3…377fbacked Over | 50c | 194$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa3…a86fbacked Under | 51c | 189$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 51cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b04…7377backed Over | 50c | 189$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x980e…bc50backed Under | 51c | 187$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4e…c584backed Over | 50c | 187$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee1…a27cbacked Over | 50c | 180$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe302…ad65backed Under | 51c | 180$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Over | 49c | 140$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…811bbacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 50c | 90.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed21…a2a1backed Over | 56c | 85.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 50c | 85.3$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.65 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +14.3wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 47c | 63.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d1…ff0cbacked Over | 54c | 58.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…1eedbacked Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…b31fbacked Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f79…c16cbacked Over | 50c | 49.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 51c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 66c | 39.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 46c | 38.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 47c | 38.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…87ddbacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf67c…44adbacked Under | 43c | 32.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…db4abacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…e894backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 48c | 22.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff20…eca0backed Over | 50c | 21.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…a9f7backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5af1…f988backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Saints vs. Falcons: O/U 43.5this page
- Saints vs. FalconsFalcons won
- Saints vs. Falcons: O/U 36.5Under won
- Saints vs. Falcons: O/U 44.5Under won
- Saints vs. Falcons: O/U 45.5Under won
- Spread: Falcons (-2.5)Saints won
- Spread: Falcons (-3.5)Saints won
- Spread: Falcons (-4.5)Saints won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.