NFL · resolved market
Saints vs. Falcons: O/U 44.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x478cb90648661b4fcd5f20458b72ad0f0f510d0f46a4f2d6b389089a0346ee5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 55c | 4,910$2,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,209.56 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Over | 45c | 3,895$1,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,752.96 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Under | 54c | 2,385$1,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.48 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 46c | 1,161$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.14 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 45c | 992.73$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.73 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 46c | 899$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.54 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Under | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 136 | 41.2%56 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 44c | 357.14$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.14 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Over | 45c | 107$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 56c | 77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Over | 46c | 76.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 56c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x597f…e9cfbacked Under | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bd…8deabacked Under | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315a…b24cbacked Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Saints vs. Falcons: O/U 44.5this page
- Saints vs. FalconsFalcons won
- Saints vs. Falcons: O/U 36.5Under won
- Saints vs. Falcons: O/U 43.5Under won
- Saints vs. Falcons: O/U 45.5Under won
- Spread: Falcons (-2.5)Saints won
- Spread: Falcons (-3.5)Saints won
- Spread: Falcons (-4.5)Saints won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.