NFL · resolved market
Spread: Texans (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdad81c21981cbcd0e05ff4ee7e5f782f17442bd011e5deaf1ef7786c7dca00fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texansof Texans, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,412
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Texans | 53c | 25,798$13,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,125 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Texans | 53c | 23,918$12,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,241.42 | 111 | 68.5%76 W · 35 L | +18.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…968abacked Cardinals | 47c | 20,000$9,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,400 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…ae61backed Texans | 54c | 19,073$10,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,773.78 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Cardinals | 47c | 17,807$8,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,367.36 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Cardinals | 46c | 11,303$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,199.53 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cardinals | 46c | 8,254$3,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,793.42 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…5432backed Cardinals | 46c | 6,600$3,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,036 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Cardinals | 47c | 4,620$2,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,171.4 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf4…8860backed Cardinals | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Texans | 54c | 2,700$1,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,242 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Texans | 54c | 1,389$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.89 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0500…6158backed Cardinals | 47c | 987.23$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee0…5233backed Cardinals | 46c | 916.74$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.7 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Cardinals | 37c | 885$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.45 | 276 | 44.2%122 W · 154 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cardinals | 46c | 854$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.84 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Texans | 55c | 605.55$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.55 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Texans | 62c | 600$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Cardinals | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 136 | 41.2%56 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Texans | 53c | 499.99$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.99 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Texans | 55c | 455$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.75 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Cardinals | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Texans | 53c | 425.52$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.99 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Cardinals | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60f0…1a38backed Cardinals | 46c | 290$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Texans | 63c | 266$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.42 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Texans | 50c | 240$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Cardinals | 50c | 233$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.5 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Texans | 54c | 220$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c1…32f7backed Cardinals | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x544e…2d9fbacked Texans | 54c | 202.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.38 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Texans | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Texans | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Cardinals | 47c | 170.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf527…366bbacked Cardinals | 46c | 163.04$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Texans | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Texans | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Texans | 55c | 118.18$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Cardinals | 46c | 106$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…ba65backed Cardinals | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Texans | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda5c…ed5bbacked Texans | 54c | 94.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3191…6135backed Cardinals | 46c | 91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…3c8cbacked Texans | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked Texans | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed Texans | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4aad…18f4backed Texans | 54c | 60.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Cardinals | 45c | 57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Texans | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5db5…47efbacked Cardinals | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…835dbacked Texans | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 220 | 53.2%117 W · 103 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Texans | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3c…7efbbacked Texans | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…82e5backed Cardinals | 51c | 39.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Texans | 49c | 38.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…666cbacked Texans | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Texans | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…de01backed Cardinals | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked Cardinals | 46c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cardinals | 46c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…b31fbacked Texans | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…c03abacked Texans | 55c | 22.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Texans | 55c | 22.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…694ebacked Texans | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2643…28c2backed Texans | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Texans | 63c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texans (-9.5)this page
- Cardinals vs. TexansTexans won
- Cardinals vs. Texans: 1H MoneylineTexans won
- Cardinals vs. Texans: O/U 42.5Over won
- Cardinals vs. Texans: O/U 43.5Over won
- Spread: Texans (-10.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-19.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-6.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-7.5)Texans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.