NFL · resolved market
Spread: Texans (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdecbb5942f8e235f5c580d0698149f223340ac384152971a3333d0b25aaaf134
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texansof Texans, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $265,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $271,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $265,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Texans | 48c | 139,007$66,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72,707.85 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a55…f9bebacked Cardinals | 53c | 124,128$65,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65,787.87 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Cardinals | 52c | 63,000$32,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,760 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Texans | 47c | 25,513$12,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,411.43 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Texans | 47c | 20,000$9,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,600 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Cardinals | 52c | 19,899$10,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,347.3 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Texans | 47c | 18,238$8,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,624.07 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Texans | 47c | 16,230$7,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,601.64 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Cardinals | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,200 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Texans | 48c | 10,000$4,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,249.98 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Cardinals | 52c | 9,000$4,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,680 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Cardinals | 52c | 7,777$4,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,044.04 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Texans | 47c | 6,433$3,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,383.14 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Cardinals | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf4…8860backed Cardinals | 21c | 2,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Texans | 77c | 2,270$1,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.61 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Texans | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.33 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77a3…0e3fbacked Cardinals | 52c | 1,906$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Texans | 47c | 1,191$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.23 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Texans | 47c | 1,170$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.1 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Texans | 79c | 960.26$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.88 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Cardinals | 44c | 925$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.5 | 276 | 44.2%122 W · 154 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86c…6ec8backed Cardinals | 52c | 800$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…e9b4backed Cardinals | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Texans | 47c | 525$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.25 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe4…ff36backed Cardinals | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Texans | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Cardinals | 41c | 380$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.98 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Texans | 47c | 322$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.21 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Cardinals | 53c | 280$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.4 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f0…1a38backed Cardinals | 54c | 280$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Cardinals | 53c | 235.85$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Cardinals | 15c | 218$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 207 | 57.5%119 W · 88 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Texans | 49c | 213$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.82 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabdf…3cbcbacked Texans | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…3e6cbacked Cardinals | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Texans | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Cardinals | 52c | 194.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.39 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked Texans | 49c | 181.51$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.57 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Texans | 49c | 111.2$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.71 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Cardinals | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Cardinals | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Texans | 71c | 99.51$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0679…bebbbacked Cardinals | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Cardinals | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f79…c16cbacked Cardinals | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Texans | 48c | 79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f8…79a8backed Cardinals | 53c | 63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 102 | 56.9%58 W · 44 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Texans | 76c | 55.34$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed Texans | 48c | 47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -59%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Cardinals | 51c | 46.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8d…9693backed Texans | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022a…df5ebacked Texans | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 188 | 43.1%81 W · 107 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Cardinals | 51c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Cardinals | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 169 | 40.8%69 W · 100 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…2aa8backed Cardinals | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 290 | 59.7%173 W · 117 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a400backed Texans | 48c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Cardinals | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Cardinals | 53c | 26.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Texans | 48c | 23.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Texans | 45c | 22.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Texans | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 183 | 50.3%92 W · 91 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Texans | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…a77bbacked Cardinals | 55c | 19.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texans (-10.5)this page
- Cardinals vs. TexansTexans won
- Cardinals vs. Texans: 1H MoneylineTexans won
- Cardinals vs. Texans: O/U 42.5Over won
- Cardinals vs. Texans: O/U 43.5Over won
- Spread: Texans (-19.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-6.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-7.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-9.5)Texans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.