NFL · resolved market
Spread: Texans (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17082bb2e7821333a0e10613cb3d8c511ac612a06bf6642d9271bcefe151e972
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texansof Texans, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bf4…8860backed Cardinals | 39c | 2,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Texans | 61c | 1,254$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.05 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…930fbacked Texans | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Texans | 61c | 250$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Cardinals | 33c | 229.71$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.11 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Cardinals | 35c | 172$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…ae61backed Texans | 65c | 172$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…5903backed Texans | 68c | 147.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Texans | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0232…9391backed Texans | 61c | 74.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 102 | 56.9%58 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Cardinals | 33c | 49.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Texans | 65c | 48.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Cardinals | 77c | 33.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…87ddbacked Texans | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Texans | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d60…50dbbacked Texans | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texans (-6.5)this page
- Cardinals vs. TexansTexans won
- Cardinals vs. Texans: 1H MoneylineTexans won
- Cardinals vs. Texans: O/U 42.5Over won
- Cardinals vs. Texans: O/U 43.5Over won
- Spread: Texans (-10.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-19.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-7.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-9.5)Texans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.