NFL · resolved market
Cardinals vs. Texans: O/U 42.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ac33729efbeb8ba9a91c4d7ddeb184e2ebf1658b49438ffa6974ec464503055
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Under | 52c | 10,379$5,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,396.9 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,300 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Under | 52c | 9,143$4,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,754.53 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 9,026$4,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,695.18 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 47c | 8,404$3,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,419.26 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…fc5bbacked Over | 48c | 5,000$2,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,620 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Over | 47c | 3,404$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,804.12 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 51c | 2,370$1,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,215.9 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 48c | 1,881$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.81 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 48c | 1,104$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.08 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0500…6158backed Over | 47c | 919.15$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 51c | 793.88$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.88 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Over | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Over | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 426.76$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.38 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb457…b13abacked Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Over | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Over | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 53c | 250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Over | 47c | 250$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 199 | 48.2%96 W · 103 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 46c | 163.71$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.4 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad2…71f8backed Over | 47c | 160$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.4 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Over | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 53c | 114.69$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 48c | 105.66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.97 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Under | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 183 | 36.1%66 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed21…a2a1backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Over | 49c | 93.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Under | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 54c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5e…ca99backed Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Over | 50c | 39.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…80c9backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 74c | 20.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1acc…35b7backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cardinals vs. Texans: O/U 42.5this page
- Cardinals vs. TexansTexans won
- Cardinals vs. Texans: 1H MoneylineTexans won
- Cardinals vs. Texans: O/U 43.5Over won
- Spread: Texans (-10.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-19.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-6.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-7.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-9.5)Texans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.