TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Nuggets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$340,836
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$342,537

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $340,836 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 246 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xac25…433fbacked Timberwolves46c90,000$41,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,599.998038.8%31 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Nuggets70c60,802$42,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,617.1620758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Nuggets56c53,726$29,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,940.7366248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Nuggets54c33,360$18,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,039.454,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Timberwolves47c20,883$9,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,054.1469848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Timberwolves30c16,765$5,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,735.52,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Timberwolves34c11,125$3,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,313.541,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Timberwolves36c10,994$3,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,041.623,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves33c10,919$3,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,314.658,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Timberwolves50c10,631$5,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,319.061,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf721…ecf5backed Nuggets50c7,206$3,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,601.461637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-24.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe21e…f216backed Timberwolves46c6,704$3,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,639.6212058.3%70 W · 50 L+11.9wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+21.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets53c5,269$2,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,797.876,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bb0…ca79backed Timberwolves47c5,260$2,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,790.725561.8%34 W · 21 L+6.7wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+21.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Timberwolves35c4,614$1,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,991.522,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Timberwolves46c4,344$1,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,345.8647856.7%271 W · 207 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Nuggets39c3,807$1,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,476.6193148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Nuggets52c3,583$1,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,846.821,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Timberwolves46c3,296$1,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,786.81,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Nuggets54c3,258$1,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,775.152,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Nuggets79c3,201$2,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,528.7256945.3%258 W · 311 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0ff…9953backed Nuggets54c3,000$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,62011864.4%76 W · 42 L+15.6wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+25.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Timberwolves45c2,901$1,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,595.5517553.7%94 W · 81 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Nuggets53c2,693$1,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,427.5122055%121 W · 99 L+12.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f50…3191backed Nuggets57c2,580$1,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,460.967865.4%51 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1b…7768backed Nuggets54c2,533$1,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,378.7427645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Timberwolves46c2,518$1,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,348.7362051.1%317 W · 303 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb17e…22bebacked Timberwolves21c2,292$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,803.773852.6%20 W · 18 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+35.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Timberwolves38c2,209$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,360.4955251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f90…acffbacked Nuggets56c2,206$1,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,235.115066%33 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcede…6736backed Nuggets54c2,177$1,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,175.643842.1%16 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Timberwolves44c2,153$947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,205.5528643%123 W · 163 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Timberwolves30c2,142$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.362,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc9e…441dbacked Nuggets54c2,060$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122.21825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-52.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x189a…4765backed Timberwolves47c2,060$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,091.8650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Timberwolves67c2,019$1,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.93,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Nuggets53c2,000$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06025641.4%106 W · 150 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x09d4…5f81backed Nuggets58c1,975$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,155.494626.1%12 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-40%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Nuggets54c1,890$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.792,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9438…3d6abacked Nuggets53c1,710$907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.838947.6%185 W · 204 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf410…ca73backed Timberwolves44c1,657$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927.925352.8%28 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4951…3038backed Nuggets54c1,597$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.523652.8%19 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdf6…d7f7backed Nuggets56c1,542$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.561952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa676…a4c5backed Timberwolves28c1,520$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,101.7517042.4%72 W · 98 L+8.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Timberwolves33c1,434$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.7583039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe903…6adbbacked Timberwolves47c1,404$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.067156.3%40 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Timberwolves44c1,369$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.7866352.6%349 W · 314 L+30.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Timberwolves42c1,224$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.316139.8%64 W · 97 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09f1…8332backed Nuggets57c1,202$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.684269%29 W · 13 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+18.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21f5…c161backed Timberwolves49c1,187$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.3811440.4%46 W · 68 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e8a…a5bcbacked Timberwolves46c1,133$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.188242.7%35 W · 47 L+0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Timberwolves44c1,123$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.8361638.5%237 W · 379 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Nuggets54c1,080$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.945251.1%231 W · 221 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2fe…7558backed Timberwolves23c1,065$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.8614946.3%69 W · 80 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f0c…160cbacked Timberwolves47c1,030$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.913858%80 W · 58 L-0.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed Nuggets53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5308348.2%40 W · 43 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Nuggets20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20044345.1%200 W · 243 L+2.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x32f1…c96ebacked Nuggets55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55011757.3%67 W · 50 L+9.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc309…513dbacked Timberwolves19c1,000$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8103100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+196.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x62de…39fbbacked Nuggets53c923$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.191040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Nuggets53c914.89$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.514,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Nuggets57c908.13$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.341,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a7…87b6backed Nuggets57c854.91$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.095050%25 W · 25 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab2d…b1aabacked Nuggets69c837.36$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.8229547.5%140 W · 155 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27ee…b517backed Timberwolves47c737.84$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.597441.9%31 W · 43 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x62c0…db73backed Nuggets54c638.08$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.3520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x949e…20afbacked Nuggets15c627.65$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.916240.3%25 W · 37 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Nuggets53c597.07$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.0632045.3%145 W · 175 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Nuggets56c584.16$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.1389853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Nuggets54c583.44$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.0635546.5%165 W · 190 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6df…dda7backed Nuggets51c535.18$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.9424247.1%114 W · 128 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ad5…8ddabacked Nuggets61c521.92$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.375180.4%41 W · 10 L+9.7wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+33%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xe098…8ee2backed Nuggets56c521.57$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.0820754.1%112 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Nuggets54c487.26$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.1287049.3%429 W · 441 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked Timberwolves44c456.87$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.548544.7%38 W · 47 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5eff…db12backed Nuggets53c445.6$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.171723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-28.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Timberwolves32c422.46$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.1959255.4%328 W · 264 L+23.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bfe…9408backed Timberwolves46c420.7$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.185637.5%21 W · 35 L-6.8wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-22.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x09ad…819ebacked Nuggets71c415.87$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.9614254.9%78 W · 64 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d36…8f64backed Timberwolves47c412$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.363948.7%19 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+39.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Timberwolves20c402.61$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.522,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Nuggets54c362.6$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.4337647.3%178 W · 198 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f61…f488backed Nuggets54c360.15$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.489642.7%41 W · 55 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f51…7b9ebacked Nuggets56c348.55$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.710835.2%38 W · 70 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-6.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed Nuggets51c342.56$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.7115846.8%74 W · 84 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0570…5200backed Timberwolves32c340.38$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.888457.1%48 W · 36 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Timberwolves46c289.32$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.871,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4244…03a6backed Timberwolves46c273.45$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.6618349.2%90 W · 93 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f5…c5bbbacked Nuggets77c264.6$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.742941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe479…70dfbacked Nuggets41c262.17$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.342454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b43…fae9backed Nuggets56c261.07$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.0331151.1%159 W · 152 L+0.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85ec…65e9backed Nuggets56c260.79$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.041758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+25.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd6d…c733backed Nuggets51c256.92$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.039358.1%54 W · 39 L+7.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xab9f…570cbacked Nuggets56c256.2$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.4713240.2%53 W · 79 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xae35…5dd3backed Nuggets79c249.97$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.4813837%51 W · 87 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Nuggets60c246.23$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.3261253.1%325 W · 287 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Nuggets56c235.26$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.758744.8%39 W · 48 L-8.7wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Nuggets44c221.98$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6761151.4%314 W · 297 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb3d…58f5backed Timberwolves34c219.22$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.6914153.9%76 W · 65 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb120…f2ffbacked Timberwolves46c212$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.485738.6%22 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.