NBA · resolved market
Aaron Gordon: Points O/U 14.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa00ad32b545f49d40fb86307d00d72b27de0b25b2e758d5cabec1daa205705ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c20…42a1backed Yes | 34c | 467.06$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.44 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 64c | 314.7$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.56 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked No | 66c | 314.67$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.39 | 392 | 65.1%255 W · 137 L | +31.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x927a…f706backed Yes | 37c | 260.47$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 241 | 39%94 W · 147 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe299…761bbacked Yes | 33c | 98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -15.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed No | 65c | 76.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 55c | 48.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e73…248ebacked No | 71c | 33.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3d27backed No | 67c | 21.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 64c | 20.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55e1…0a28backed No | 65c | 19.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aaron Gordon: Points O/U 14.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-0.5)Nuggets won
- Aaron Gordon: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Aaron Gordon: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 14.5Yes won
- Nuggets vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.