TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$157,196
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$174,467

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,196 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x85f0…3f67backed Under54c67,262$36,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,142.514546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Over46c45,290$20,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,916.1669848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over47c15,741$7,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,333.664,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef27…381bbacked Under53c14,302$7,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,721.928452.4%44 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Over47c14,183$6,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,666.011,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over46c10,138$4,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,662.666,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Over0c5,879$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5831222.1%69 W · 243 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+79.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Under53c5,690$3,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,674.2211654.3%63 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Over47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,35012745.7%58 W · 69 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf07…e601backed Under55c4,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,800540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe647…2040backed Under55c3,080$1,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,376.835354.7%29 W · 24 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Over46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92025641.4%106 W · 150 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over8c1,142$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.282,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over46c1,055$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.8132045.3%145 W · 175 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over44c1,022$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.684,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Over47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47066352.6%349 W · 314 L+30.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over11c816.41$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.8189048.8%434 W · 456 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe903…6adbbacked Under53c777.44$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.47156.3%40 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5782…8ce5backed Under53c680.26$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.729652.1%50 W · 46 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf592…9872backed Under54c627.5$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.1111651.7%60 W · 56 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Over47c618.77$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.9345251.1%231 W · 221 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over44c608.1$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.571,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Over10c560.21$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9516139.8%64 W · 97 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Over45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22565045.1%293 W · 357 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Over47c499.98$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.287049.3%429 W · 441 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Over47c454.44$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.871,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Over46c370.95$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.291,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Over46c354.98$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.617043.5%74 W · 96 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Under56c347.71$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.9995452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Over45c344.64$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.091,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Over45c330.86$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.8949249.8%245 W · 247 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under53c265$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.831,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c36…9433backed Under56c260.79$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.7515641.7%65 W · 91 L-13.9wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-26.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Under54c253.91$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.827450%137 W · 137 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeca6…08ffbacked Over8c253.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.35846.6%27 W · 31 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x847e…3c43backed Under55c242.37$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.063174.2%23 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfc0e…a1fabacked Over45c237.34$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.816524.6%16 W · 49 L-11.4wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-46.4%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xb002…103dbacked Over45c193.4$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.036845.6%31 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x635c…5a00backed Under53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.687742.9%33 W · 44 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4f5a…669bbacked Over24c142.25$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.851330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-52.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Over46c140$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.422453.1%119 W · 105 L+29.4wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+29.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x49ec…ac1cbacked Under55c138.13$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.7524044.6%107 W · 133 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Under52c123.23$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.151,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…6f57backed Over46c108.36$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8530256.6%171 W · 131 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd866…55e0backed Under77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2315863.9%101 W · 57 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Under53c99.7$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.661,32249.9%660 W · 662 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cbc…1d39backed Under53c91.68$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0911850.8%60 W · 58 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over47c76.23$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.971,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe51…e909backed Under54c70.55$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.45850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2784…e60abacked Over45c70.18$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.581553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Over44c67$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4834850.9%177 W · 171 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28af…7de0backed Over47c62.93$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.585453.7%29 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Over48c61.03$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.344747%210 W · 237 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over21c59.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.193,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89b9…118ebacked Over47c58.09$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.371752%373 W · 344 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d13…643cbacked Over45c54.54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5414338.5%55 W · 88 L-18.4wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-28.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2f26…641dbacked Under54c54.35$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.181163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc789…7972backed Under54c54.02$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8516146.6%75 W · 86 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xce7a…fef0backed Under55c53.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.233056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcef4…22e0backed Under55c53.07$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.883562.9%22 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81a4…da1fbacked Under56c52.16$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9511443%49 W · 65 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc036…30d4backed Over45c42.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3451946.8%243 W · 276 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Over47c41.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5762049%304 W · 316 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4388…9ce4backed Under53c38.87$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2719952.3%104 W · 95 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x117d…6542backed Under55c37.15$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7256454.3%306 W · 258 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x883a…f5a0backed Under53c36.67$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.242638.5%10 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-19.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6e2e…7f4ebacked Under53c36.3$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.069150.5%46 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b73…174ebacked Under52c35.08$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.846352.4%33 W · 30 L+5.7wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+24.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Over47c33.89$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9393145.8%426 W · 505 L-25.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7239…4389backed Over46c31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2643750.1%219 W · 218 L-1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x449e…f0a9backed Under54c28.11$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.937860.3%47 W · 31 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70df…bca8backed Under53c27.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9332750.2%164 W · 163 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c7c…94e2backed Under52c27.17$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c4…c3b0backed Over47c26.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.471154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+33.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77f8…9e14backed Under56c26.08$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.481540%6 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-31.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0576…6232backed Over47c25.84$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1421149.3%104 W · 107 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7262…c2f1backed Under56c24.34$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.712875%21 W · 7 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+19.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x033c…b4afbacked Under56c23.73$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.443050%15 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46be…9ce1backed Under53c21.81$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.251080%8 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+53.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0eba…cd37backed Under79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x164d…50c0backed Under60c18.35$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.344257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.