NBA · resolved market
Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 28.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e719d4262b5109c199ea2886ecf9b7e0b6fe46ccbc51137418d2c56d8769fbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3542…c3c8backed Yes | 55c | 1,600$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed No | 45c | 1,545$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.77 | 292 | 43.8%128 W · 164 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc2…eaefbacked Yes | 58c | 1,500$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.97 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed No | 42c | 1,069$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.74 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 39c | 323.41$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.27 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…7db3backed No | 42c | 229.81$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.29 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dc…5613backed Yes | 58c | 128.38$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764f…6b8abacked Yes | 59c | 99.19$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -16.2wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked No | 57c | 76.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8e…fe83backed Yes | 64c | 73.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…e44bbacked No | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…e316backed No | 42c | 48.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed No | 42c | 46.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c43…31c1backed Yes | 61c | 32.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 120 | 44.2%53 W · 67 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…8f62backed No | 42c | 28.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfb…3ac1backed Yes | 64c | 22.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 28.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-0.5)Nuggets won
- Aaron Gordon: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Aaron Gordon: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Aaron Gordon: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 14.5Yes won
- Nuggets vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.