TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5f90…acff

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
67
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
1

Best Category: Movies, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Movies at 53 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 50.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT5066%33 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 50 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.5
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$198
Cavaliers vs. Raptorsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$4,897Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,896.87
Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,235Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,235.11
Pistons vs. Magicbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$672Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$672
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$740Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$740
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$874Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+37%+$323.12
Warriors vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$13.56
Hornets vs. Magicbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.7
Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 219.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.97
Warriors vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$61.99
Spread: Suns (-2.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+100%+$15
Thunder vs. Clippersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$6
Trail Blazers vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$271Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$270.87
Raptors vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$12.57
Knicks vs. Rocketsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.75
Timberwolves vs. Mavericksbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$20.74
Heat vs. Pacersbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$160
Pelicans vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$75
Rockets vs. Bullsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.1
Timberwolves vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$156
Grizzlies vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$8.99
Mavericks vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$17.57
Suns vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$5.64
Jazz vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$330Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$270
Showing 25 of 50 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.8
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+37%+$18.49
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,500
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$832Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$768
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advancebacked Brazil · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$800
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$449.28
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advancebacked Portugal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,160Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+37.9%+$440
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advancebacked Brazil · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$70.27
Spread: Canada (-1.5)backed South Africa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$75
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,540Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$460
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$208.23
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$7.4
All 13 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+40.8%+$5.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+27.2%+$8.17
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.