TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pelicans vs. Raptors

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Raptorsof Pelicans, Raptors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,436,622
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,870,369

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,436,622 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,349 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa710…23c4backed Pelicans26c200,000$52,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,999.9532653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Pelicans25c130,000$32,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,50048343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Raptors75c129,082$96,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,270.5266248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ebf…3b02backed Raptors76c108,214$82,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,971.291040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1961…c461backed Raptors75c100,000$75,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,0008750.6%44 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eef…3fcbbacked Raptors74c100,000$74,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,999.8811955.5%66 W · 53 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pelicans24c98,565$24,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,143.264,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Pelicans26c95,883$24,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,626.2772648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Raptors74c87,316$64,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,118.9632540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Pelicans25c70,000$17,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,50043148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Pelicans26c62,547$16,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,262.2117250.6%87 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Raptors76c61,154$46,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,833.484,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe30e…6b87backed Raptors75c59,500$44,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,606.02875%6 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick74cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacae…6798backed Raptors75c55,049$41,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,023.4211241.1%46 W · 66 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb12d…f73cbacked Raptors74c52,911$39,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,756.819655.2%53 W · 43 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Raptors75c50,123$37,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,341.932,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Raptors75c50,000$37,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,5001,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Raptors74c46,764$34,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,929.274,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Raptors74c46,621$34,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,908.541,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Pelicans25c40,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0001,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Raptors75c39,996$29,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,998.91,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Raptors74c37,333$27,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,706.6736359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb5e9…4044backed Raptors74c37,240$27,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,682.529053.3%48 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x777d…5143backed Pelicans27c37,000$9,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,99019754.3%107 W · 90 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+20.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Pelicans25c36,730$9,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,084.5841832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Pelicans26c30,000$7,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,80037539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Raptors75c27,000$20,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,75074748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked Pelicans0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb46f…c453backed Pelicans24c23,500$5,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,639.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+24.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Raptors77c22,747$17,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,340.220744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed Pelicans3c19,852$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001417.8%11 W · 130 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-46.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Raptors77c19,481$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,480.522,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c36…7854backed Raptors77c18,946$14,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,447.122263.6%14 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Pelicans9c18,006$1,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,621.174,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9423…b2debacked Raptors76c16,578$12,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,978.722100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Pelicans0c16,416$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.585213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5aa…9134backed Raptors74c16,194$11,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,210.4419957.8%115 W · 84 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe3d4…884ebacked Pelicans7c14,111$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.758225.6%21 W · 61 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Raptors74c13,658$10,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,517.0386641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Pelicans26c13,500$3,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,51027546.2%127 W · 148 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f3b…0cf9backed Raptors76c13,209$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,208.6922159.7%132 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Pelicans1c12,346$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.8935744.3%158 W · 199 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5845…7903backed Raptors75c10,664$7,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,719.322015%3 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick30cpaid-59%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd705…fb7cbacked Pelicans8c10,068$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8005234.6%18 W · 34 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46bc…2d14backed Pelicans6c8,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48018931.2%59 W · 130 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Pelicans25c7,746$1,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,936.4766250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Pelicans14c7,712$1,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,104.041,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Raptors73c7,700$5,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,078.9695651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Pelicans25c7,333$1,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,809.411,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Pelicans26c7,000$1,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,82058449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5f6…a659backed Pelicans25c6,916$1,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,729.0327241.9%114 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa4b…37a5backed Pelicans27c6,860$1,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,852.1825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-48.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b97…6c05backed Pelicans26c6,667$1,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,733.52785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.38per pick48cpaid+81.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Raptors74c6,499$4,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,685.492,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Pelicans25c6,350$1,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,587.524053.8%129 W · 111 L+12.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd38…99d4backed Raptors75c6,281$4,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,546.7125657%146 W · 110 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Pelicans26c6,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,559.9857950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b1f…eac0backed Raptors76c5,977$4,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,434.472100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+82.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd98…de71backed Raptors76c5,956$4,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,429.44250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76cb…55d3backed Pelicans27c5,803$1,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,566.844445.5%20 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x167b…f53dbacked Pelicans26c5,687$1,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,478.741283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+36.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x81f0…cbb1backed Raptors75c5,531$4,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,382.638765.5%57 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3b4…7730backed Pelicans8c5,140$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398300%0 W · 30 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Pelicans25c5,000$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.9718547%87 W · 98 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf56a…a946backed Pelicans27c4,896$1,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,322.01933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-41%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Pelicans0c4,650$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.558820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe29e…fa35backed Pelicans1c4,554$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4134136.1%123 W · 218 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Raptors77c4,301$3,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$986.161,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Pelicans24c4,181$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005.462,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4880…5626backed Raptors76c4,170$3,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.4618648.9%91 W · 95 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Pelicans26c4,100$1,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,07458740%235 W · 352 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4278…0e92backed Raptors76c4,000$3,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95041652.2%217 W · 199 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Pelicans26c4,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04032039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Raptors74c4,000$2,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.9931046.8%145 W · 165 L+1.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4285…cfb5backed Raptors74c3,851$2,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.354658.7%27 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc50f…3ad3backed Pelicans26c3,846$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00012850%64 W · 64 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Raptors74c3,805$2,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.665939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Raptors76c3,715$2,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$876.311,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3762…6f3dbacked Pelicans24c3,699$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.76560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa73a…656abacked Pelicans13c3,652$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.6325226.6%67 W · 185 L-26.7wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-49.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x77d3…f4d6backed Pelicans27c3,500$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.9929250%146 W · 146 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5919…95acbacked Raptors72c3,470$2,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988.4811543.5%50 W · 65 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Raptors73c3,159$2,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.32,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fd…5a3fbacked Raptors73c3,046$2,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.3919958.3%116 W · 83 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x78a0…3a2fbacked Pelicans7c2,945$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.2319728.4%56 W · 141 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Pelicans12c2,906$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.161,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31a6…0dcfbacked Pelicans26c2,803$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.7817028.8%49 W · 121 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x141b…73bbbacked Pelicans1c2,754$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151030%3 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick22cpaid-33.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9aaf…f724backed Raptors74c2,600$1,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6766564.6%42 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31e7…18a8backed Raptors77c2,600$2,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598875%6 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43a6…96c1backed Raptors74c2,495$1,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.641266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce8b…6bc7backed Raptors77c2,338$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.667864.1%50 W · 28 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24a4…4120backed Raptors75c2,301$1,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.34966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+23%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6752…bc58backed Raptors75c2,284$1,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.08742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8db2…f8a2backed Pelicans20c2,257$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4442334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-35.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x662f…c8d0backed Raptors74c2,240$1,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.32966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbb4…299abacked Raptors75c2,215$1,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.741080%8 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+35.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5feb…c439backed Raptors74c2,125$1,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.55560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d89…0949backed Raptors75c2,114$1,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+70.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d66…7799backed Raptors75c2,100$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5251850%9 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.