Token Launches · resolved market
XMAQUINA FDV above $60M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6456955f4341952f0a9c8c20a52b64d57c5c72422968f23de0efe103fd32c20a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,370$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.93 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e2…4a79backed No | 60c | 926.15$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.57 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed Yes | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…7eabbacked Yes | 40c | 407.3$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.47 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…0906backed No | 66c | 375.31$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.75 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +12.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 341.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a07…1d4dbacked Yes | 27c | 309.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…914ebacked Yes | 29c | 284.41$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.69 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52fd…2ab7backed Yes | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…ed56backed No | 11c | 200$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 22c | 168.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 25c | 163.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed Yes | 31c | 135.03$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 16c | 126.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e34…9434backed Yes | 22c | 84.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 50c | 79.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed Yes | 27c | 75.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 27cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb8…243bbacked No | 77c | 71.39$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac9…30c7backed Yes | 55c | 62.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1635…5624backed No | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 66c | 59.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2186…a36bbacked Yes | 38c | 58.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 61c | 55.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xede3…e3f2backed Yes | 37c | 50.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…56edbacked Yes | 28c | 42.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 48 | 91.7%44 W · 4 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…59c5backed No | 75c | 24.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Yes | 66c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d5…aba1backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed Yes | 67c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- XMAQUINA FDV above $60M one day after launch?this page
- XMAQUINA FDV above $100M one day after launch?No won
- XMAQUINA FDV above $40M one day after launch?Yes won
- XMAQUINA FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- XMAQUINA FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
- XMAQUINA FDV above $80M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.