TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$70,147
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$67,356

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,147 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1635…5624backed Yes8c15,069$1,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,808.295642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf382…be0ebacked No10c2,340$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.63616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No65c1,405$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$917922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-63.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e49…cc2abacked Yes44c1,191$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.371942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No22c968.74$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.7725422%56 W · 198 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes41c831.9$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.355650%28 W · 28 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-5.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No73c799.25$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.948134.6%28 W · 53 L-7.0wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-43.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5a60…2a67backed No29c784.75$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.933330.3%10 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes54c687.96$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.545642.9%24 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+260.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc9b8…84a3backed No75c479.79$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.26333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick78cpaid-57.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c65…3e45backed No39c478.77$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.366735.8%24 W · 43 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+43.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No71c475.63$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.6423841.2%98 W · 140 L+25.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+30.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0c47…37e8backed No6c461.63$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.281428.6%4 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-52.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22b4…9cc0backed Yes63c395.77$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.77450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e16…5026backed No58c362.77$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.366246.8%29 W · 33 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No6c359$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.38932.2%2 W · 91 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07ce…3c44backed No72c347.3$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes13c344$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.12425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+91.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a8…865abacked Yes9c339.9$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.44812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49f7…046bbacked No50c323.37$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.16520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-74%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f0…dc1bbacked No78c254.91$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes16c227.29$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.127663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No30c218.44$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.841117.2%8 W · 103 L-12.9wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-79.7%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x6884…60a9backed No74c202.51$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe397…bfcbbacked No70c200$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.53020%6 W · 24 L-4.7wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-66.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb893…35d6backed No55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+262.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x981d…ed7fbacked No20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408744.8%39 W · 48 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x15c0…0e98backed No72c178.74$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd69e…3393backed Yes28c178.3$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.3333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes67c167.93$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.026342.9%27 W · 36 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8467…f9e4backed No18c163.68$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf037…d925backed No79c154.72$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3477…7a31backed No79c150.94$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes47c145.84$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.9921240.6%86 W · 126 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa84f…bc44backed No44c144.15$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.046031.7%19 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ee…3ce7backed No74c134.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No13c125.19$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.023495.7%20 W · 329 L-25.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked No69c124.39$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.921625%4 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-25.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x75d8…c711backed No79c122.18$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1971…9afdbacked Yes73c115.75$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.54250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No40c113.38$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9846320.5%95 W · 368 L-68.1wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-59.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xcd55…c4a4backed No79c111.18$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0970…7889backed Yes43c111.13$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3af2…5212backed No72c111.03$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.712458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes16c109.42$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.77922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf628…795bbacked No79c107.7$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b6d…3ec5backed No77c100.62$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-58%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7f3…e279backed No15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x173a…eb85backed Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671225%3 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-52.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.81637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+58.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b10…4629backed No60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9680…60babacked No37c99.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a0c…74f9backed Yes46c98.29$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.16560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed Yes48c98$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.881546.7%7 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.21per pick26cpaid+74.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x94d8…37e6backed No41c97.68$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404850%24 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d2e…2581backed Yes76c92.09$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.09250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5445…439ebacked Yes22c90.27$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.412910.3%3 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-63%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed No80c90.18$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1130%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x689f…68f2backed No79c89.16$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb41e…11fdbacked No12c88.61$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.47296.9%2 W · 27 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick18cpaid-83.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No62c87.51$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.11944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-31.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7438…b741backed No15c85.08$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8970%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5942…90f3backed No34c79$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aab…1323backed Yes76c78.93$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes29c72.94$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.798643%37 W · 49 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad7a…f00cbacked Yes79c71$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.742100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+89.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked No58c65.74$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.344434.1%15 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes24c65.45$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.644330.2%13 W · 30 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-40.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92ec…c720backed No76c64.71$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52fd…2ab7backed Yes24c62.94$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.96728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c52…eb4ebacked No21c55.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f8b…56edbacked No27c53.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7550%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb347…84b4backed No28c52.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa74…78b9backed No37c51.11$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f2…e77abacked No66c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34fd…15a0backed No48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd2e…0873backed Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.78333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf27…f35fbacked No61c49.26$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbe4…2a32backed No61c48.81$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1330…ef34backed No68c48.36$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.98250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7437…6e31backed No42c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked No51c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.243043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfef9…c4c5backed No69c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Yes40c39.94$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.922850%14 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x369c…eab1backed No33c35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.44250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4702…e837backed No79c34.02$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.74250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick79cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No59c31.27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.511643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-33.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa2ef…4535backed No77c29.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01ab…e190backed No73c28.94$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9e8…7b51backed Yes45c26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08b8…5692backed No74c24.85$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed Yes71c23.76$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.942050%10 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd35e…30a3backed No76c23.72$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc86e…5632backed No77c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82cd…d7d8backed No66c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa586…a14dbacked No66c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x777c…45a9backed No68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x023d…3431backed Yes72c19.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No78c19.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.744891.7%44 W · 4 L+9.0wins+0.19per pick73cpaid+26.1%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x3cff…6fbdbacked No77c18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.