Token Launches · resolved market
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x202b5145de8f4bbc5ad2c1cd060cb0654bb65307b241357c67eabbe450c4fbcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1635…5624backed Yes | 8c | 15,069$1,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,808.29 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…be0ebacked No | 10c | 2,340$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 65c | 1,405$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e49…cc2abacked Yes | 44c | 1,191$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.37 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 22c | 968.74$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.77 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 41c | 831.9$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.35 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 799.25$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.94 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a60…2a67backed No | 29c | 784.75$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.93 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 54c | 687.96$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.54 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +260.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b8…84a3backed No | 75c | 479.79$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 78cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…3e45backed No | 39c | 478.77$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.36 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 71c | 475.63$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.64 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0c47…37e8backed No | 6c | 461.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22b4…9cc0backed Yes | 63c | 395.77$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed No | 58c | 362.77$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.36 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 6c | 359$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ce…3c44backed No | 72c | 347.3$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 13c | 344$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…865abacked Yes | 9c | 339.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.44 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked No | 50c | 323.37$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…dc1bbacked No | 78c | 254.91$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 227.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.12 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 30c | 218.44$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.84 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…60a9backed No | 74c | 202.51$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked No | 70c | 200$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.5 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…35d6backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +262.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…ed7fbacked No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15c0…0e98backed No | 72c | 178.74$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd69e…3393backed Yes | 28c | 178.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 67c | 167.93$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.02 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8467…f9e4backed No | 18c | 163.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf037…d925backed No | 79c | 154.72$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3477…7a31backed No | 79c | 150.94$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 145.84$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.99 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed No | 44c | 144.15$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.04 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ee…3ce7backed No | 74c | 134.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 13c | 125.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 69c | 124.39$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.92 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d8…c711backed No | 79c | 122.18$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1971…9afdbacked Yes | 73c | 115.75$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 40c | 113.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcd55…c4a4backed No | 79c | 111.18$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…7889backed Yes | 43c | 111.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af2…5212backed No | 72c | 111.03$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.71 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes | 16c | 109.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.77 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf628…795bbacked No | 79c | 107.7$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6d…3ec5backed No | 77c | 100.62$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -58%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…e279backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b10…4629backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9680…60babacked No | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed Yes | 46c | 98.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 48c | 98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 26cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed No | 41c | 97.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2e…2581backed Yes | 76c | 92.09$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5445…439ebacked Yes | 22c | 90.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.41 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed No | 80c | 90.18$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x689f…68f2backed No | 79c | 89.16$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 12c | 88.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 62c | 87.51$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7438…b741backed No | 15c | 85.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…90f3backed No | 34c | 79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aab…1323backed Yes | 76c | 78.93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 29c | 72.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.79 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad7a…f00cbacked Yes | 79c | 71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 58c | 65.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 24c | 65.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.64 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92ec…c720backed No | 76c | 64.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52fd…2ab7backed Yes | 24c | 62.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c52…eb4ebacked No | 21c | 55.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…56edbacked No | 27c | 53.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…84b4backed No | 28c | 52.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa74…78b9backed No | 37c | 51.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f2…e77abacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fd…15a0backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…0873backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked No | 61c | 49.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe4…2a32backed No | 61c | 48.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1330…ef34backed No | 68c | 48.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…6e31backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfef9…c4c5backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 40c | 39.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x369c…eab1backed No | 33c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4702…e837backed No | 79c | 34.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 59c | 31.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ef…4535backed No | 77c | 29.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ab…e190backed No | 73c | 28.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e8…7b51backed Yes | 45c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b8…5692backed No | 74c | 24.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 71c | 23.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd35e…30a3backed No | 76c | 23.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc86e…5632backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cd…d7d8backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa586…a14dbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777c…45a9backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…3431backed Yes | 72c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 19.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 48 | 91.7%44 W · 4 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3cff…6fbdbacked No | 77c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will Cap launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2027?Yes won
- Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.