Token Launches · resolved market
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dc5cd88742a3eafc9ec05a4d631bd55ce39147be8bd0fae6051a7f5373a9ea3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed No | 11c | 2,972$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…3e45backed No | 8c | 2,084$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.15 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 1c | 1,200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…5e23backed No | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72cf…09bbbacked No | 22c | 272$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 18c | 253$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 18c | 236.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 23c | 195.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 12c | 105.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…fcffbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 15c | 70.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 23c | 63.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a60…2a67backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc077…a46cbacked Yes | 80c | 58.53$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 45c | 58.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed Yes | 79c | 49.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8004…cd61backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Yes | 41c | 39.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +160%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf498…52eebacked Yes | 79c | 32.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…696ebacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7596…0293backed Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6899…4161backed Yes | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4702…e837backed Yes | 79c | 15.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026?this page
- Will Cap launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2027?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.