Token Launches · resolved market
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2027?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb93cbe8b6272bb25db17eb2e0982adf17fc9aac384c6b97ea17f94a6494053ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1635…5624backed Yes | 72c | 1,933$1,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.61 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaef…7c98backed No | 2c | 948.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 892.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed No | 13c | 454.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.89 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…f923backed Yes | 15c | 306.85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 62c | 304.68$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.78 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 80c | 270$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 34c | 222$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.48 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 13c | 211.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed No | 8c | 184.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 27cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…865abacked No | 8c | 163$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 25c | 125$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52fd…2ab7backed No | 25c | 70.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 18c | 68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 26cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 25c | 63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…bed6backed No | 27c | 55.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe587…dc56backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…96d5backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac9…30c7backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22dc…7b11backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 73cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2027?this page
- Will Cap launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.