Fed Rates · resolved market
Trump drops Powell investigation before Warsh is confirmed?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2da305df6d17538fb175c13629a2345be918bfcd6b6dd5bc1e1bccefd2fda47f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 1,176$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 61c | 1,050$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.3 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 39c | 596.5$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e7…fbbfbacked Yes | 60c | 585.22$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.96 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 33c | 571.71$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 63c | 528.28$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.2 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes | 70c | 316.67$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.48 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 48c | 294.99$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.99 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…dfd2backed No | 6c | 192.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 31c | 160$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 20c | 131.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 44c | 120$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 67c | 114.46$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5d…1726backed No | 38c | 114.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 48c | 99.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.95 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 29c | 97.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x244b…c0fdbacked No | 38c | 50.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -57%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 38c | 41.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…b759backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd607…4b09backed Yes | 58c | 33.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 41c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa8…b3e2backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95fe…35bfbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7501…9edbbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.