Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 April 20-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x708bea63d6daec8725ed060033a883e63a2de48f8be847cc5e518acbb4174bab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $235,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $211,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $235,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c35…feebbacked Yes | 0c | 59,241$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6b…9a8abacked Yes | 0c | 11,186$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd1…8af7backed Yes | 4c | 6,314$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.78 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Yes | 2c | 6,295$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 7c | 5,277$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.45 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…b720backed Yes | 3c | 4,767$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.36 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b16…4ae8backed Yes | 17c | 3,763$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.72 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21be…410ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,564$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 31c | 3,115$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.34 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x559a…c9a3backed Yes | 3c | 3,111$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.84 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc131…f290backed Yes | 3c | 2,711$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.88 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…e00abacked Yes | 1c | 2,350$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4d…78f5backed Yes | 8c | 2,151$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.52 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2543…ce9bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,968$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc38f…4d34backed Yes | 7c | 1,788$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ce…6da0backed Yes | 28c | 1,693$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.74 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe468…769dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,579$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.3 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 1,300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed Yes | 4c | 1,060$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked Yes | 3c | 977.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd13d…a958backed Yes | 1c | 969.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x991f…d3c2backed No | 71c | 911.57$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.43 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed36…e096backed Yes | 51c | 905.13$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.99 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x726f…d8e7backed No | 80c | 899.56$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.41 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b64…707bbacked Yes | 6c | 864.64$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.88 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 17c | 552.06$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.12 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 24c | 538$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Yes | 10c | 503.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fac…4723backed Yes | 6c | 449.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 6c | 439.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes | 3c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…a17bbacked Yes | 6c | 274.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd59f…ba3cbacked Yes | 35c | 258.97$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438d…ce57backed Yes | 5c | 217.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd60…70b9backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ac…aa06backed Yes | 35c | 176.27$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e0…72a6backed Yes | 10c | 174.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7942…d30bbacked Yes | 32c | 169.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x291b…e36cbacked No | 57c | 164.58$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.77 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fc…ddfdbacked No | 64c | 139.38$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3393…7eecbacked No | 68c | 133.27$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…f1f5backed No | 66c | 120.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed Yes | 41c | 111.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…5219backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…75b9backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x846f…750ebacked Yes | 50c | 92.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8c…ecaebacked No | 58c | 80.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…6ebcbacked Yes | 26c | 78.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7e7cbacked Yes | 36c | 69.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3d…bd04backed No | 70c | 67.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f13…ca9abacked No | 70c | 61.06$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13b0…c8adbacked Yes | 35c | 56.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c6…dea6backed No | 79c | 49.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf7…b311backed No | 55c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e0…47eebacked Yes | 27c | 41.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…b98abacked Yes | 46c | 40.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…11dfbacked Yes | 37c | 40.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac36…349dbacked No | 60c | 39.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…0539backed No | 54c | 37.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f95…01a8backed Yes | 47c | 36.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab78…fac0backed Yes | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…2494backed No | 67c | 31.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…e9c2backed No | 64c | 26.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xceed…aca1backed No | 71c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb382…3c75backed No | 70c | 20.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd4…1971backed No | 72c | 16.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2b…2086backed No | 79c | 12.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 April 20-26?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 April 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 April 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 20-26?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 20-26?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 April 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 April 20-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.