Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 April 20-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12b47f86f290836d00450bfa04e3a31b4d93307e57d97a93168842ab81758f95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 16c | 11,190$1,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,783.91 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6b…9a8abacked Yes | 1c | 2,920$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 2,400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b1…aa54backed Yes | 14c | 998.09$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…b562backed Yes | 5c | 863.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2902…a383backed Yes | 2c | 828.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438d…ce57backed Yes | 2c | 577.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b16…4ae8backed Yes | 7c | 552.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d74…596bbacked Yes | 3c | 499.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -92.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2543…ce9bbacked Yes | 3c | 337.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7191…aa3ebacked Yes | 15c | 301$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c49…97febacked Yes | 17c | 258.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…e94dbacked Yes | 19c | 232.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33fb…897cbacked Yes | 14c | 164.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec68…a36fbacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e0…72a6backed Yes | 16c | 131.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…b967backed Yes | 15c | 131.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f1…bc10backed Yes | 13c | 101.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b0…c8adbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab78…fac0backed Yes | 25c | 66.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Yes | 22c | 63.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2b…70ebbacked Yes | 23c | 57.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 April 20-26?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 April 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 April 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 20-26?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 20-26?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 April 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 April 20-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.