Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 20-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41ef7c9a12ef7f47489b1414a20a761ebd3870479be06dfc3f5a06bcfd9e62f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $193,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $219,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $193,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3234…f52bbacked Yes | 4c | 16,326$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 13c | 7,534$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.26 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…a403backed Yes | 3c | 6,072$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.1 | 62 | 0%0 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1d…d0fabacked Yes | 4c | 5,683$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.69 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…be16backed Yes | 11c | 4,112$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.38 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 3,293$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.11 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 11c | 2,844$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.43 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb758…dd73backed Yes | 10c | 2,176$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.6 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…20b6backed Yes | 1c | 1,960$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6e…e39dbacked No | 75c | 1,547$1,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.21 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa319…9e56backed Yes | 25c | 1,439$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed Yes | 6c | 1,235$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.21 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,209$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x991f…d3c2backed Yes | 16c | 1,088$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.62 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked Yes | 6c | 992.69$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes | 5c | 650$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…b720backed No | 78c | 633.28$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.32 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20e1…cd73backed Yes | 30c | 361.35$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…333ebacked Yes | 5c | 274.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +371.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x634a…07b2backed Yes | 12c | 249.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x438d…ce57backed Yes | 6c | 243.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8937…42fabacked Yes | 6c | 207.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4d…78f5backed Yes | 15c | 203.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62c1…79f5backed Yes | 25c | 191.64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 24c | 185.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 136 | 24.3%33 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 25c | 183.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2897…dc17backed Yes | 16c | 164.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…79d4backed Yes | 34c | 161.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd3…0413backed Yes | 28c | 160.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1f…3537backed Yes | 24c | 155.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b16…4ae8backed Yes | 17c | 139.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9a…e7e0backed No | 68c | 139.7$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d07…1d75backed Yes | 12c | 126.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe36a…ae58backed Yes | 14c | 104.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc7…0936backed No | 80c | 101.74$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ea…2f4bbacked Yes | 13c | 100.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe468…769dbacked Yes | 25c | 98.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55d…7484backed No | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfa…9bb4backed No | 76c | 77.24$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3219…7c85backed Yes | 24c | 74.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…d78bbacked Yes | 26c | 74.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bf…5c35backed No | 80c | 66.41$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2255…1ac2backed Yes | 27c | 53.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39e4…b188backed No | 73c | 45.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd326…9b29backed Yes | 29c | 43.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7898…0667backed No | 70c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2b…2086backed Yes | 36c | 33.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a17…048ebacked No | 64c | 29.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.33per pick | 56cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3748…48d0backed No | 77c | 28.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5925…90b1backed No | 75c | 28.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…9cb5backed No | 68c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6943…1cc9backed No | 66c | 22.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb382…3c75backed No | 76c | 19.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e6…79b5backed No | 75c | 14.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 20-26?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 April 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 April 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 April 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 20-26?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 20-26?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 April 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 April 20-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.