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Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 20-26?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$161,449
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$146,612

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,449 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa2c0…fad2backed Yes0c12,000$12 inLost-$12310%0 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b76…c036backed Yes0c12,000$12 inLost-$12260%0 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ca…7f86backed Yes0c12,000$12 inLost-$1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes0c12,000$12 inLost-$12710%0 W · 71 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes7c10,680$775 inLost-$775.358126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes0c8,314$13 inLost-$12.834754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a16…7439backed Yes10c3,070$307 inLost-$307.051520%3 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-66.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b6b…9a8abacked Yes2c2,615$44 inLost-$44.46220%0 W · 22 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes7c2,297$171 inLost-$170.7623411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd15…5ea7backed Yes11c877.99$99 inLost-$98.93175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick10cpaid+15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21c6…927bbacked Yes4c821.95$34 inLost-$34.151672.4%4 W · 163 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f69…acb6backed Yes5c809.35$37 inLost-$37.441792.2%4 W · 175 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-71.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes11c800.36$87 inLost-$87.1714213.4%19 W · 123 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95a0…2717backed Yes11c693.76$77 inLost-$76.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes5c328.19$17 inLost-$17.3487828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cc5…46b1backed Yes8c325.32$26 inLost-$26.031010%1 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-87.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96a4…b967backed Yes7c173.22$12 inLost-$12.13333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab78…fac0backed Yes11c134.2$15 inLost-$15.2350%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd70f…a153backed Yes20c50$10 inLost-$101330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked No80c48.56$39 inWon+$9.7126274.4%195 W · 67 L+45.7wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+31.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.