Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 20-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ab780b81ecd276c4e3694b030ba41076edc35c21af08efce47e79761808f4d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e1d…d0fabacked No | 17c | 25,245$4,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,190.31 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5925…90b1backed No | 0c | 16,987$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 51c | 7,123$3,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,503.26 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c20…cb2cbacked No | 48c | 5,204$2,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,498.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed No | 63c | 2,935$1,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,848.94 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 51c | 2,346$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,148.58 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed36…e096backed Yes | 49c | 1,708$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.85 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x473a…7194backed Yes | 47c | 1,087$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5abb…05a3backed Yes | 68c | 999.91$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b16…4ae8backed Yes | 54c | 853.1$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.75 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed No | 13c | 810.66$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.64 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 7c | 800$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc79a…9b44backed No | 10c | 555$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 27c | 538$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.26 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb37b…5186backed No | 34c | 499.97$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.99 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…76dcbacked No | 51c | 464.58$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4d…78f5backed Yes | 64c | 370.14$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.41 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd86c…98aabacked No | 45c | 368.32$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.74 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8c…ecaebacked Yes | 56c | 334.1$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa1…3dd3backed No | 56c | 300.16$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa29b…a0b8backed Yes | 52c | 283.09$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.88 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a16…7439backed Yes | 52c | 253.97$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.74 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed No | 10c | 218.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 122 | 59.8%73 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed No | 10c | 199.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6119…346ebacked Yes | 59c | 158.62$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.47 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x726f…d8e7backed No | 48c | 149.62$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.94 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x634a…07b2backed Yes | 64c | 148.15$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe65…cd92backed Yes | 65c | 146.09$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.13 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa813…04fbbacked No | 50c | 143.84$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.92 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +17.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked Yes | 53c | 110$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…5219backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…3ffebacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…a0a7backed No | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x991f…d3c2backed No | 35c | 98.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3d…bd04backed No | 51c | 96.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e3…a9debacked No | 52c | 93.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa81f…eed2backed Yes | 54c | 86.46$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f13…ca9abacked Yes | 51c | 72.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…f1f5backed No | 43c | 72.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e0…47eebacked Yes | 55c | 69.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13bc…b26dbacked No | 47c | 68.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +5.2wins | +0.25per pick | 37cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…b7a9backed Yes | 52c | 67.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7e7cbacked No | 31c | 67.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5af0…011cbacked Yes | 58c | 66.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0f…e5f4backed Yes | 56c | 58.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x846f…750ebacked Yes | 54c | 56.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…af99backed No | 52c | 53.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…b98abacked No | 47c | 53.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf7…b311backed No | 46c | 50.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fc…ddfdbacked No | 47c | 47.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4faf…ff4bbacked No | 56c | 41.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9210…8b0ebacked Yes | 57c | 37.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…e142backed No | 46c | 37.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05c6…dea6backed No | 46c | 34.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Yes | 70c | 34.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…693bbacked Yes | 55c | 34.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…223cbacked Yes | 59c | 33.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 45c | 31.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 89 | 19.1%17 W · 72 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…e9c2backed No | 46c | 27.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x225d…e4debacked Yes | 67c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…5b5ebacked No | 49c | 26.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2b…70ebbacked Yes | 54c | 25.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe548…e48bbacked Yes | 74c | 25.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd1…8af7backed Yes | 59c | 25.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68b1…acf5backed Yes | 55c | 25.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24a6…0e2dbacked No | 50c | 24.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2f…304ebacked No | 44c | 23.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc083…f545backed Yes | 61c | 23.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8e…37f5backed Yes | 63c | 22.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf85…a803backed No | 55c | 21.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x400a…b12ebacked No | 57c | 18.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 20-26?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 April 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 April 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 April 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 20-26?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 April 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 April 20-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.