World Politics · resolved market
US evacuates Guadalajara consulate by Feb 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x543f570bfbcc0a44af24ae5c28a2e8b2cc64fde3c62d1c25d20f37285a1b340f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 2c | 17,800$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…d21cbacked Yes | 10c | 8,409$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…5d01backed Yes | 3c | 4,378$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x377d…f71bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,861$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 3,798$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.74 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…9d2ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,756$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 2c | 2,121$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 2,070$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,628$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6833…1c79backed Yes | 1c | 1,347$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,293$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,251$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 135 | 7.4%10 W · 125 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,192$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 150 | 14%21 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…2d35backed Yes | 1c | 1,154$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e50…1fcebacked Yes | 1c | 1,040$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04f0…50f9backed Yes | 3c | 1,023$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…feebbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed Yes | 3c | 895.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 2c | 596$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 5c | 570$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24a6…2622backed Yes | 6c | 528.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0b…82cbbacked Yes | 16c | 435$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc88…b7eebacked Yes | 19c | 435$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed Yes | 4c | 380.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…0df8backed Yes | 6c | 349.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed Yes | 4c | 330.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 11c | 290$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017d…8badbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…40dabacked Yes | 6c | 198.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40e…17afbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Yes | 22c | 63.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x400c…9fa0backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb6…d56ebacked No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +51%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5b…4ef4backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f76…1d92backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.