Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 April 27-May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e2a2b3b03a8cd0878d210a941b7e0fa039fc32fda6bd81f870f5919c8f7c261
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $279,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $251,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $279,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9bcf…5ee7backed Yes | 9c | 25,364$2,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,233.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3379…f0b4backed Yes | 6c | 20,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78f…9cffbacked Yes | 3c | 10,000$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.2 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 78c | 9,816$7,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,176.11 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…a926backed Yes | 29c | 8,200$2,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,364.98 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…d8e6backed Yes | 0c | 8,098$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 62 | 0%0 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc131…f290backed Yes | 1c | 7,250$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…feebbacked Yes | 0c | 7,100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…a403backed Yes | 9c | 5,888$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.46 | 62 | 0%0 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 30c | 5,746$1,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,742.91 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 9c | 3,976$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.47 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…da20backed Yes | 5c | 3,453$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…4bf5backed Yes | 8c | 3,363$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc3…414abacked Yes | 5c | 2,161$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…7f8abacked Yes | 40c | 2,070$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x473a…7194backed Yes | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 9c | 1,923$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.64 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,868$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.86 | 103 | 1.9%2 W · 101 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 19c | 1,746$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.93 | 120 | 12.5%15 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31f5…c806backed Yes | 43c | 1,535$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…251ebacked Yes | 38c | 1,484$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.18 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b16…4ae8backed Yes | 32c | 1,395$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.71 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…b720backed Yes | 2c | 1,278$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a07…55d4backed Yes | 28c | 1,073$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f3…85debacked Yes | 8c | 1,040$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.63 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bf…84c7backed Yes | 31c | 1,034$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec7…9a5cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,013$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…0ac6backed No | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +7.2wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…daf7backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd33…5310backed Yes | 5c | 977.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8a…7699backed Yes | 31c | 976.19$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.62 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes | 12c | 966.55$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.49 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd97…b6edbacked Yes | 48c | 925$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…0937backed Yes | 28c | 883.66$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a3…96b3backed Yes | 23c | 798.43$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.53 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…668fbacked Yes | 26c | 769.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…8d6ebacked No | 71c | 765.12$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.88 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -12%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb37b…5186backed No | 60c | 750$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.5 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde3d…6b1fbacked Yes | 9c | 723.91$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 50c | 704.07$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.1 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed36…e096backed Yes | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x006f…8b87backed Yes | 6c | 669.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…5ea7backed Yes | 31c | 639.49$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.12 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59bb…6d65backed Yes | 33c | 637.45$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.31 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4d…78f5backed Yes | 19c | 630.96$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.71 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…c7aebacked Yes | 30c | 599.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5898…945fbacked Yes | 5c | 511.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes | 2c | 498.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…a17bbacked Yes | 11c | 498.35$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…9ccdbacked Yes | 3c | 492.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a53…5578backed Yes | 2c | 476.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee24…bd15backed Yes | 40c | 415$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f6…72a6backed Yes | 16c | 391.85$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…5f77backed No | 45c | 336.03$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.03 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +7.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…f1f5backed No | 68c | 334.38$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.36 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x318a…4a32backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…51ebbacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9497…86a9backed Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7a…8304backed No | 68c | 299.99$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf74…17b2backed Yes | 4c | 266.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…11d3backed Yes | 46c | 263.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…e383backed Yes | 6c | 254$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 90 | 4.4%4 W · 86 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…6c17backed Yes | 5c | 252.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3d…bd04backed No | 70c | 246.62$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.12 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…5a58backed Yes | 10c | 243.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd43…0699backed Yes | 24c | 240$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b91…982dbacked Yes | 5c | 217.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87d…8cafbacked No | 55c | 212.55$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.65 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedad…17b2backed Yes | 55c | 212$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.6 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3f…ac90backed Yes | 28c | 210$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a83…94f3backed Yes | 28c | 201.53$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cf…c231backed Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…606abacked Yes | 44c | 199.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…e94abacked No | 73c | 199.96$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad8…3506backed Yes | 15c | 187.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked Yes | 42c | 183.3$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.98 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked No | 79c | 182$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +94%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7816…ce35backed Yes | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab4e…dec9backed Yes | 26c | 181.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…2065backed Yes | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd55d…7484backed Yes | 35c | 170$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 38c | 158.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 136 | 24.3%33 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 48c | 150.35$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.17 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23ef…0112backed No | 59c | 144.92$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8322…0b15backed No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…6ebcbacked Yes | 47c | 140.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.09 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf789…3041backed Yes | 10c | 135.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…501dbacked No | 61c | 127.77$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…05efbacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe891…4b25backed No | 64c | 124.09$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07df…8be6backed No | 74c | 123.88$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf903…e051backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5141…015abacked Yes | 29c | 104.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b19…3f42backed Yes | 31c | 104.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b43…31cebacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…9722backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +474.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f8…321dbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 April 27-May 3?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 April 27-May 3?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 April 27-May 3?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 April 27-May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.