Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 April 27-May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8c942350ac72941d726b826434c4c38bccfb349fec9673ab11470bb4cfe2db7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e1d…d0fabacked No | 30c | 3,516$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.57 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8a…7699backed Yes | 63c | 2,849$1,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedad…17b2backed Yes | 73c | 1,066$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.78 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 71c | 1,002$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.58 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 16c | 634$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.44 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed36…e096backed No | 18c | 489.96$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.19 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x66da…edd8backed Yes | 66c | 475.52$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…251ebacked Yes | 78c | 466.47$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.56 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59bb…6d65backed Yes | 70c | 319.6$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.88 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb37b…5186backed No | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…11d3backed Yes | 74c | 235.94$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2c…e783backed No | 40c | 228.4$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f09…e2a1backed Yes | 66c | 172.31$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…08ffbacked No | 36c | 170.07$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88df…a457backed Yes | 61c | 164$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe87d…8cafbacked No | 16c | 137.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 21c | 105.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 136 | 24.3%33 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 75c | 99.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x628c…c651backed Yes | 63c | 75.14$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4c…33b5backed Yes | 72c | 61.14$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7e7cbacked No | 18c | 57.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…3850backed No | 26c | 48.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…f1f5backed No | 34c | 41.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 63c | 38.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked No | 30c | 36.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe65…cd92backed Yes | 69c | 27.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x438d…ce57backed Yes | 58c | 25.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 74c | 20.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 April 27-May 3?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 April 27-May 3?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 April 27-May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.