Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 27-May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4e716861f6b59edcdfc2029e1b367b801592545d1903d2cca99f3875d112ed0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $343,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $318,303
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $343,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa61b…9d74backed Yes | 0c | 56,683$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc131…f290backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 1c | 17,347$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.4 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 0c | 13,500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 5c | 6,360$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.51 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 9c | 6,181$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.48 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 6,103$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.14 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 1c | 4,765$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5898…945fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,621$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…a403backed Yes | 0c | 3,595$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 62 | 0%0 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1d…d0fabacked Yes | 1c | 3,093$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…251ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,579$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33fb…897cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,468$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.55 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…51ebbacked Yes | 1c | 2,349$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2207…4afcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,835$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78f…9cffbacked Yes | 2c | 1,722$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8240…cbfabacked Yes | 1c | 1,583$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 8c | 1,492$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.67 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2897…dc17backed Yes | 1c | 1,460$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea93…1594backed Yes | 2c | 1,265$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9140…cf5ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,128$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 103 | 1.9%2 W · 101 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd72a…2b7ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,082$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf34…dc6ebacked Yes | 3c | 941.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 680.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 2c | 644.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4429…4c58backed Yes | 3c | 567.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…04e5backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713c…758cbacked Yes | 2c | 490$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…a17bbacked Yes | 6c | 262.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438d…ce57backed Yes | 11c | 132.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x628c…c651backed Yes | 10c | 104.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 27-May 3?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 April 27-May 3?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 April 27-May 3?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 April 27-May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.