Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 April 27-May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f0190a879fc29646a823a090c53bf721f8b5b9de659fda86728fd557a86b591
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $145,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $149,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8e6…1ea4backed Yes | 6c | 13,934$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.57 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…51ebbacked Yes | 2c | 9,160$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.5 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cce…6e85backed Yes | 7c | 8,941$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.87 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 3c | 5,775$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.66 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x104a…5b05backed Yes | 12c | 5,658$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.67 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a53…5578backed Yes | 0c | 4,776$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4150…ebdabacked Yes | 12c | 4,251$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…4e63backed Yes | 10c | 4,045$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.17 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,660$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,029$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59bb…6d65backed Yes | 9c | 2,404$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.94 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3f…ac90backed Yes | 9c | 1,510$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.4 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 1,488$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9abbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,484$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes | 3c | 1,206$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb0…26ecbacked Yes | 6c | 936.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a3…96b3backed Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9497…86a9backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e1…1728backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +188.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 10c | 487.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 136 | 24.3%33 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc0…c46cbacked Yes | 8c | 477.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes | 2c | 421.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b64…707bbacked Yes | 7c | 401$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 7c | 337.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb6…5ba8backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 7c | 275.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cf…c231backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438d…ce57backed Yes | 8c | 190.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 April 27-May 3?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 April 27-May 3?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 April 27-May 3?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 April 27-May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.