AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x140eb203cfebb00d88630f849849315352dfacc59af0bc1a0636721f60c38a0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes | 0c | 19,886$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 4,800$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…d9e2backed No | 76c | 2,218$1,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.66 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…fa73backed Yes | 2c | 2,146$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,929$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.62 | 416 | 7.5%31 W · 385 L | -25.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,312$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked No | 70c | 958.94$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.89 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c5…fe06backed Yes | 13c | 825.35$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 22c | 799.98$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 790.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 31c | 760.31$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.7 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 19c | 638.28$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.72 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 69c | 612.61$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.03 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 609$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6007…1788backed Yes | 19c | 581.28$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 523.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 412.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x513a…3b2cbacked Yes | 31c | 324.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5f…0ecdbacked Yes | 24c | 300$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…031ebacked Yes | 29c | 299.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 18c | 265$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed No | 73c | 217.36$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.17 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 20c | 209.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 68c | 188.46$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.31 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…b79ebacked Yes | 30c | 165.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…980fbacked Yes | 32c | 144$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x763b…865ebacked No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x396f…7f78backed Yes | 27c | 140$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 69c | 136.94$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc244…c06fbacked Yes | 30c | 134.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 31c | 133.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 19c | 131.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac2d…a9c4backed Yes | 22c | 131.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1f…a246backed No | 77c | 110.9$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ee…801bbacked No | 70c | 104.39$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…16dcbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99b8…d816backed Yes | 21c | 95.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…52debacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c2…f1d3backed Yes | 30c | 83.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…7c14backed Yes | 16c | 66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 62.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b8…2b21backed No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0731…5194backed No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd86…1f67backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…29c3backed Yes | 27c | 37.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb69…361ebacked No | 72c | 33.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed No | 62c | 26.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…7a5abacked Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd3…2f78backed No | 45c | 23.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed No | 69c | 23.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99cd…133ebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98c2…5e0fbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a97…7334backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe128…8722backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…67b2backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…3896backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd392…b84ebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1690…d790backed No | 80c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…b64dbacked No | 71c | 18.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…1578backed No | 61c | 17.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882e…08c0backed No | 70c | 16.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d70…e9b0backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.