Fifa International · resolved market
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18272a665f31ed5f9995220f38018d396bac5dd026fbcad1f473b8f582311c83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 8c | 21,376$1,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,787.39 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 6c | 4,963$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.19 | 1,262 | 47.5%600 W · 662 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…3c86backed Yes | 4c | 3,029$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.96 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Yes | 4c | 2,816$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.47 | 716 | 38.4%275 W · 441 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 14c | 2,572$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.97 | 304 | 31.3%95 W · 209 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde48…9dbebacked Yes | 2c | 1,811$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 109 | 32.1%35 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…a787backed Yes | 6c | 1,680$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 4c | 1,467$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd546…657bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,279$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 306 | 7.8%24 W · 282 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…0a8dbacked Yes | 4c | 965.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 122 | 6.6%8 W · 114 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Yes | 9c | 914.95$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.68 | 175 | 13.7%24 W · 151 L | -19.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 6c | 889.36$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 1,702 | 36.7%625 W · 1,077 L | -31.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8521…df10backed Yes | 5c | 707.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Yes | 4c | 499.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 237 | 29.1%69 W · 168 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Yes | 4c | 442.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 237 | 43.9%104 W · 133 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefcc…8a1dbacked Yes | 9c | 417.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…cec1backed Yes | 4c | 415.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…24b8backed Yes | 6c | 345.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc595…994dbacked Yes | 13c | 342.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 145 | 26.2%38 W · 107 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddcb…1815backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71e7…1082backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab7…6978backed Yes | 6c | 257.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…614abacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 6c | 244$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5572…f01ebacked Yes | 5c | 230$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…bbb2backed Yes | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…fa73backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked Yes | 10c | 174.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 419 | 68.3%286 W · 133 L | +65.4wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…8b4cbacked Yes | 10c | 153.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 147.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 14c | 102.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 301 | 17.9%54 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…bbfbbacked No | 80c | 101$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 14c | 99.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 426 | 40.1%171 W · 255 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 20c | 95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 512 | 50.4%258 W · 254 L | +31.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Yes | 16c | 91.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 195 | 40%78 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 19c | 86.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 1,354 | 38.9%527 W · 827 L | -55.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes | 17c | 85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 205 | 60%123 W · 82 L | +17.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 82.1$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 17c | 71.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 514 | 29.4%151 W · 363 L | -46.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 390 | 39%152 W · 238 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will San Marino win on 2026-06-09?this page
- Will Azerbaijan vs. San Marino end in a draw?No won
- Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.