Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-03-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cf1580ce30e06ae7a356755cfebea5227f2e14998a17226e79384d1c4b675d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4408…1b6abacked Yes | 9c | 27,160$2,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,515.99 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d11…c449backed Yes | 9c | 18,123$1,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,695.88 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 14c | 8,634$1,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,208.72 | 211 | 44.5%94 W · 117 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 13c | 3,846$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.98 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 14c | 1,321$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.97 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 13c | 1,250$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…fa73backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 14c | 733.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.44 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 8c | 441.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecad…875cbacked Yes | 15c | 415.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 4c | 396.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…2a61backed Yes | 14c | 348$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 14c | 290.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 126 | 47.6%60 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…7cf6backed Yes | 6c | 262.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Yes | 14c | 215$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes | 11c | 179.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Yes | 8c | 175$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -48%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 13c | 158$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 13c | 153.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…6002backed Yes | 13c | 153.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 13c | 149.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 130 | 16.2%21 W · 109 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca9…9783backed Yes | 15c | 146.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01e8…2ee6backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…2421backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13b5…2c2cbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes | 13c | 77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 106 | 43.4%46 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2961…cfcfbacked Yes | 14c | 72.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Nantes win on 2026-03-01?this page
- Will Lille OSC vs. FC Nantes end in a draw?No won
- Will Lille OSC win on 2026-03-01?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.