TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Natus Vincere vs SK Gaming - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, SK Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$854,986
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,003,054

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $854,986 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 294 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked Natus Vincere73c115,510$84,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,187.7855955.8%312 W · 247 L+50.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed SK Gaming0c112,499$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.53775.6%21 W · 356 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed SK Gaming28c48,656$13,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,609.1348149.7%239 W · 242 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa40e…7145backed SK Gaming0c43,437$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed SK Gaming0c29,490$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.493923.1%9 W · 30 L-7.0wins-0.18per pick41cpaid-52%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xbfa8…cd1ebacked SK Gaming1c20,137$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.8779156.1%444 W · 347 L-2.6wins0.00per pick56cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed SK Gaming27c18,385$5,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,004.3722624.8%56 W · 170 L-15.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed SK Gaming2c18,259$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.192,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked SK Gaming3c16,677$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.191,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3aa…1485backed SK Gaming27c16,507$4,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,452.8211645.7%53 W · 63 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe308…25cdbacked SK Gaming16c16,105$2,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,610.0366437.2%247 W · 417 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed SK Gaming26c15,000$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,899.991,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed SK Gaming27c11,115$2,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,971.7223020%46 W · 184 L-17.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-36.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd812…2558backed SK Gaming14c10,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40021137%78 W · 133 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed SK Gaming1c10,000$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.2763546.6%296 W · 339 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed SK Gaming27c10,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7001,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Natus Vincere70c10,000$6,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,002.0564155.7%357 W · 284 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a35…9015backed SK Gaming32c8,763$2,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,809.8236943.9%162 W · 207 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed SK Gaming0c7,101$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.37869.8%77 W · 709 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddd3…dba6backed Natus Vincere74c6,858$5,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,783.1311833.9%40 W · 78 L-10.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf859…a183backed SK Gaming5c6,784$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.581,21352.3%635 W · 578 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5dc…0f05backed SK Gaming0c6,027$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-52.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x78d9…70f6backed SK Gaming9c5,696$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.1629527.1%80 W · 215 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Natus Vincere70c5,561$3,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,658.981,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Natus Vincere79c5,537$4,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.8759952.8%316 W · 283 L-3.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-12.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x337c…7c7bbacked SK Gaming1c5,334$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409442.6%40 W · 54 L-8.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-31%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed SK Gaming22c5,275$1,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,138.433,11933.7%1,052 W · 2,067 L-151.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc690…42b8backed Natus Vincere80c5,257$4,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,052.44259.5%25 W · 17 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick71cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked SK Gaming11c5,101$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.0353640.3%216 W · 320 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d9f…787abacked SK Gaming21c4,772$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00060445.4%274 W · 330 L+35.4wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+16.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6683…de6bbacked Natus Vincere72c4,594$3,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,286.4111658.6%68 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc70f…5de7backed SK Gaming1c4,398$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.480%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8542…9405backed SK Gaming1c4,243$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6518910.1%19 W · 170 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick12cpaid+6.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Natus Vincere74c4,053$2,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,053.759148.2%285 W · 306 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f8c…0e0cbacked SK Gaming28c4,045$1,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,141.0712653.2%67 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Natus Vincere72c3,707$2,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,038.0690348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked SK Gaming20c3,596$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.0275942%319 W · 440 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Natus Vincere72c3,596$2,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,006.8112642.9%54 W · 72 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Natus Vincere74c3,400$2,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8841,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Natus Vincere74c3,140$2,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805.691,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Natus Vincere74c3,000$2,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7801,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Natus Vincere73c3,000$2,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81082352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked SK Gaming3c2,901$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.016297%44 W · 585 L-2.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cd2…34e9backed SK Gaming27c2,860$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.277545%349 W · 426 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed SK Gaming13c2,724$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.021,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x490b…eec9backed SK Gaming27c2,697$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.259131.9%29 W · 62 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-20.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Natus Vincere74c2,681$1,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.181,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked SK Gaming27c2,578$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.081,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked Natus Vincere78c2,447$1,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.641,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Natus Vincere71c2,401$1,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.671,21254.5%660 W · 552 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0905…d3f1backed SK Gaming28c2,310$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.82751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed SK Gaming28c2,271$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.911,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Natus Vincere71c2,261$1,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.1231153.4%166 W · 145 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed SK Gaming28c2,176$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.2942840.2%172 W · 256 L-32.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed SK Gaming23c2,116$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.561,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e91…ea34backed Natus Vincere72c2,088$1,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.5850569.9%353 W · 152 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed SK Gaming28c2,016$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.032,22237.4%832 W · 1,390 L-30.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked SK Gaming29c2,013$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.121,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde5a…4db5backed SK Gaming27c2,010$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.7724939%97 W · 152 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere68c1,995$1,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.362,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed SK Gaming10c1,964$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.21,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Natus Vincere72c1,858$1,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.918139.2%71 W · 110 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Natus Vincere74c1,822$1,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.091,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d66…7799backed Natus Vincere71c1,800$1,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.764240.5%17 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked SK Gaming26c1,772$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.7267250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71b0…9ef4backed SK Gaming7c1,592$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.925252.4%132 W · 120 L+19.1wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4f4e…b690backed Natus Vincere74c1,561$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.4982454.9%452 W · 372 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Natus Vincere72c1,512$1,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.091,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed Natus Vincere72c1,470$1,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.644047.5%209 W · 231 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4108…9e22backed SK Gaming27c1,379$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37416034.4%55 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e68…ee87backed SK Gaming13c1,337$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.4210650.9%54 W · 52 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55e5…df30backed Natus Vincere75c1,325$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.648758.6%51 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked SK Gaming26c1,319$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.7545937%170 W · 289 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Natus Vincere72c1,228$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.1985746.3%397 W · 460 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed SK Gaming13c1,169$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.5185652.2%447 W · 409 L+34.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7e7…2779backed SK Gaming19c1,152$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.779662.5%60 W · 36 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed SK Gaming15c1,147$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.33,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa941…ec2ebacked Natus Vincere72c1,145$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.651160.3%308 W · 203 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x34d5…e0c1backed SK Gaming21c1,140$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.642852.3%224 W · 204 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed SK Gaming23c1,126$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.6586251.3%442 W · 420 L+51.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked SK Gaming26c1,111$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.5419648%94 W · 102 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfae5…0ddcbacked SK Gaming4c1,063$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4512324.4%30 W · 93 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked SK Gaming27c1,036$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.6466843%287 W · 381 L-29.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Natus Vincere73c1,028$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.4612035.8%43 W · 77 L-12.6wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-26.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb003…d962backed SK Gaming5c1,020$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5079151.8%410 W · 381 L+15.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c67…9896backed SK Gaming16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16050646%233 W · 273 L+2.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7351…b857backed SK Gaming27c997.49$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.324854.2%26 W · 22 L+5.7wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+10.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xff96…027cbacked SK Gaming28c975$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed SK Gaming14c965.37$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.6244843.8%196 W · 252 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf61a…5943backed SK Gaming15c930.67$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14013418.7%25 W · 109 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid+7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed SK Gaming16c915$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.4249549.1%243 W · 252 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed SK Gaming26c907.68$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23652848.9%258 W · 270 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0133…64bcbacked Natus Vincere77c881.14$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.663243.8%14 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-23.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c06…b98abacked Natus Vincere74c812.03$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.7710152.5%53 W · 48 L-9.3wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-19.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x79df…31d6backed SK Gaming27c804.91$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22068942.5%293 W · 396 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed SK Gaming26c793$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.1847533.3%158 W · 317 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x63bc…4179backed SK Gaming19c792.63$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502568%17 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…1e5bbacked SK Gaming29c788$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22729536.9%109 W · 186 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2a5…326fbacked SK Gaming22c764.08$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.087055.7%39 W · 31 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42b8…5379backed SK Gaming18c762.89$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13922349.3%110 W · 113 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.