TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, B8
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$743,738

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $743,738 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 432 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc257…358ebacked B834c219,999$74,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74,899.8239249%192 W · 200 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Natus Vincere65c114,516$74,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,080.7122049.1%108 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e6a…5b18backed B830c100,522$29,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,822.77825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17e0…80aebacked Natus Vincere71c98,045$69,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,536.29944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x506b…3f70backed B831c43,505$13,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,670.416858.8%40 W · 28 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed B817c28,643$4,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,938.5514441.7%60 W · 84 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked B826c19,199$5,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,030.091,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f28…9291backed Natus Vincere66c16,530$10,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,620.3944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-33.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed Natus Vincere75c16,000$11,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,079.9972453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed B828c14,000$3,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,95019645.4%89 W · 107 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12c0…692bbacked Natus Vincere67c11,800$7,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,8946048.3%29 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3aa…1485backed Natus Vincere66c10,548$6,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,621.835848.3%28 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Natus Vincere66c10,000$6,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,4006555.4%36 W · 29 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed Natus Vincere65c10,000$6,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,499.9937946.4%176 W · 203 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked B834c9,999$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,399.6632552.6%171 W · 154 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed B815c9,624$1,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,442.0825842.2%109 W · 149 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x686f…ccb1backed B835c8,051$2,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,803.276656.1%37 W · 29 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Natus Vincere66c8,000$5,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,72036152.6%190 W · 171 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ed0…a9c5backed Natus Vincere66c7,596$5,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,582.643953.8%21 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Natus Vincere66c7,000$4,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,379.9714934.9%52 W · 97 L-14.1wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7972…594fbacked Natus Vincere66c6,715$4,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,249.788951.7%46 W · 43 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere72c6,009$4,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,698.243,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8738…222bbacked Natus Vincere67c5,970$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,970.154548.9%22 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7bd…b013backed B818c5,529$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Natus Vincere70c5,461$3,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,660.654,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9d…9b0ebacked B81c5,100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3823234.9%81 W · 151 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed B825c5,037$1,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,254.6361837.9%234 W · 384 L-22.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x098b…1fa5backed Natus Vincere65c5,000$3,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,75012441.1%51 W · 73 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x562b…f85fbacked Natus Vincere66c4,545$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,545.475855.2%32 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe64f…7d71backed Natus Vincere64c4,531$2,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,615.713855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Natus Vincere66c4,500$2,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,515.2542142%177 W · 244 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Natus Vincere79c4,414$3,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$917.822,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Natus Vincere60c4,379$2,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,758.985,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked B831c4,327$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.7615732.5%51 W · 106 L-11.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked B824c4,310$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.3912736.2%46 W · 81 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Natus Vincere68c4,187$2,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,344.583,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Natus Vincere65c4,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4009855.1%54 W · 44 L+8.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+27.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x153a…9d6dbacked Natus Vincere65c3,799$2,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,326.5812449.2%61 W · 63 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Natus Vincere74c3,390$2,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.911,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed Natus Vincere66c3,200$2,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,08884958.3%495 W · 354 L+60.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked B833c3,090$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0051,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Natus Vincere70c3,089$2,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.562,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Natus Vincere66c3,000$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02071645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed B834c3,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.861,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed B830c2,750$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.3455236.2%200 W · 352 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc68d…2fe8backed B835c2,676$937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.695129.4%15 W · 36 L-8.2wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-45.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xcba0…97bfbacked B810c2,518$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.797647.4%36 W · 40 L+6.5wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+44.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed B832c2,045$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.812,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Natus Vincere66c2,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68026952.8%142 W · 127 L+12.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere72c1,977$1,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.426,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed B831c1,965$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.7853746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fd8…9372backed B82c1,683$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Natus Vincere75c1,568$1,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.631,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36c0…5930backed B815c1,538$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.77757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Natus Vincere71c1,500$1,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.838847.7%42 W · 46 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Natus Vincere66c1,500$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked B834c1,500$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5105644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Natus Vincere67c1,493$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.9820458.3%119 W · 85 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb87…0335backed Natus Vincere68c1,464$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.2936554.8%200 W · 165 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc6ae…afe9backed B835c1,429$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50025440.6%103 W · 151 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5a6…5270backed Natus Vincere65c1,405$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.752634.6%9 W · 17 L-3.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-30.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked B822c1,336$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.8632930.4%100 W · 229 L-21.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-50.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed B813c1,318$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.0246843.4%203 W · 265 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa952…14a5backed Natus Vincere73c1,233$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.889256.5%52 W · 40 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a81…a925backed B83c1,200$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313122.6%7 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe692…ea10backed B82c1,175$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6217617%30 W · 146 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-27.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x994d…3d8dbacked B820c1,011$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.2552834.3%181 W · 347 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed Natus Vincere66c1,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34011852.5%62 W · 56 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked B833c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3307832.1%25 W · 53 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbec5…8f77backed B834c1,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.8513030.8%40 W · 90 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbff9…009dbacked Natus Vincere65c992.64$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.649548.4%46 W · 49 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1568…2a89backed B835c948.76$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.515028%14 W · 36 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Natus Vincere66c909.22$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.2244957.5%258 W · 191 L-19.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb4…48bebacked Natus Vincere66c909.08$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.095341.5%22 W · 31 L-5.4wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-23.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfdbe…b6d8backed B816c893.75$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14014929.5%44 W · 105 L-7.7wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x766c…bb56backed B834c882.45$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3007245.8%33 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60b8…d47dbacked Natus Vincere73c859.65$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.6560857.2%348 W · 260 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9553…cfc7backed Natus Vincere71c842.32$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.328458.3%49 W · 35 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x891b…67b5backed B815c841.67$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1304332.6%14 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e38…de0fbacked B837c836.35$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.6515760.5%95 W · 62 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xebe7…ddf5backed Natus Vincere70c825.98$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.6434156.6%193 W · 148 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked B834c804.92$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.51,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed B820c800.57$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.972,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed B822c796.58$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17932653.1%173 W · 153 L-1.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x809c…eca3backed Natus Vincere67c785.24$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.134759.6%28 W · 19 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xebba…383cbacked Natus Vincere66c757.57$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.572259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+23.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Natus Vincere66c757.57$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.575565.5%36 W · 19 L+8.0wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+37%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Natus Vincere66c757$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.3860248.7%293 W · 309 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x211d…3ab7backed Natus Vincere66c756.21$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.2119351.8%100 W · 93 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Natus Vincere77c749.4$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.2788746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x389b…8d69backed Natus Vincere67c746.59$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.592339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b87…6a47backed Natus Vincere67c746.27$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.2713059.2%77 W · 53 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed Natus Vincere66c737.37$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.8920944%92 W · 117 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed B835c714.29$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2505,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37f8…b5e5backed Natus Vincere69c704.83$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.4944743.8%196 W · 251 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…1e93backed Natus Vincere66c700$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2381361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x495c…1249backed B833c700$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2311729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16e3…5476backed B815c700$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1051258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+31.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f57…3e7abacked Natus Vincere78c639.89$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.4865662.3%409 W · 247 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43a2…3901backed B818c600$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.