Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Lighter dip to $1.50 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99258ed158f3a9df9bb53f9773af25496cdf2394caeb8ce505b6aa4397f9fa6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a75…f947backed Yes | 46c | 1,201$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc12…bd10backed No | 79c | 495.67$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d4…a23fbacked No | 63c | 475.59$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5025…dd30backed No | 78c | 472.6$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 75c | 472.6$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.92 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2c…3dc9backed Yes | 61c | 415.41$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d6…81c4backed Yes | 36c | 407.1$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +873.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 11c | 401.63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.02 | 130 | 53.8%70 W · 60 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…51e0backed Yes | 22c | 305.3$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.68 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb24e…c0bebacked No | 79c | 300$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 273.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.94 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 59c | 226.06$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.35 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -8.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed Yes | 27c | 223.25$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.95 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8666…d7c7backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…5e06backed Yes | 44c | 200$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…3817backed Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…69dfbacked Yes | 31c | 150$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 18cpaid | +230.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…41fbbacked No | 67c | 135.77$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9292…2cd1backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62cb…e2e0backed No | 75c | 99.47$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b8…1305backed Yes | 45c | 62.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca01…8524backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f9…3c58backed Yes | 40c | 43.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9620…5052backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 67cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…652abacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lighter dip to $1.50 in January?this page
- Will Lighter dip to $1.00 in January?No won
- Will Lighter dip to $2.00 in January?Yes won
- Will Lighter reach $3.50 in January?No won
- Will Lighter reach $4.00 in January?No won
- Will Lighter reach $4.50 in January?No won
- Will Lighter reach $5.00 in January?No won
- Will Lighter reach $5.50 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.