Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $505 before 2026??
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b073b63fece7f204858c99dbde6413a15f9babc7a65e55c2e6097d5d3531a9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 7,676$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.62 | 1,443 | 8.8%127 W · 1,316 L | -53.1wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 27c | 4,783$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273.1 | 1,325 | 46.9%622 W · 703 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2f…578fbacked No | 58c | 3,975$2,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,652.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 41c | 2,580$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.54 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 20c | 1,839$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.22 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b0…ceebbacked No | 65c | 1,596$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.82 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 71c | 1,238$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.66 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed Yes | 19c | 1,218$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.74 | 232 | 53.4%124 W · 108 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a03…c37ebacked No | 77c | 829.65$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.47 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed No | 78c | 788.63$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 724.07$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.5 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 49c | 691.04$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.11 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8f…d61bbacked No | 76c | 688.42$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 52c | 585.47$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.8 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8436…e2ecbacked No | 67c | 568$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes | 42c | 558.17$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.46 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 41c | 504.82$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.59 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…8733backed Yes | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +314.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7302…52a2backed No | 72c | 450$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…0215backed Yes | 21c | 418.43$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.56 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6e…d2cebacked Yes | 51c | 361.27$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 40c | 356.33$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.02 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9faf…6efbbacked Yes | 42c | 354.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2f…31aebacked Yes | 34c | 347.92$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 59c | 345.86$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.41 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81b2…c617backed No | 44c | 338.93$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84f…40cabacked No | 66c | 332.72$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…e5d4backed Yes | 64c | 312.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f82…2d74backed No | 49c | 297.04$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 31c | 270$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 52c | 257$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.95 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3c7fbacked Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.82 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 6c | 191.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…653fbacked No | 61c | 183.16$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.46 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 58cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee3…fae7backed No | 60c | 166.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ed…196abacked Yes | 65c | 153.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 65c | 150$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…0df8backed Yes | 27c | 149.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 45c | 147.21$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.88 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 57c | 138.89$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fae…1246backed No | 76c | 126$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…0363backed Yes | 39c | 120.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…2758backed No | 63c | 120$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +135.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 28c | 108$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46a4…0514backed Yes | 37c | 93.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c84…4f2dbacked No | 80c | 90.68$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f7…071cbacked Yes | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 79c | 85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 84.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 16c | 82.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…9076backed No | 56c | 79.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +74%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…ee9fbacked No | 67c | 75.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488a…3781backed No | 77c | 72.42$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd63d…a0dfbacked Yes | 55c | 67.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…849ebacked No | 55c | 66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 22c | 61.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…8444backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1233…f7abbacked Yes | 45c | 57.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 29c | 51.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55cf…6cd0backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45ca…3b98backed Yes | 51c | 48.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a6…0b35backed No | 67c | 45.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…a77bbacked No | 53c | 41.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -5.8wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…1815backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed No | 49c | 38.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf591…803bbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc5…e175backed No | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d0…4d2ebacked No | 72c | 21.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 75cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4308…5accbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58d4…8c96backed No | 70c | 18.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b1…799abacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $505 before 2026??this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $275 before 2026??No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $315 before 2026??No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $375 before 2026??No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $385 before 2026??Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $405 before 2026??Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $420 before 2026??Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $445 before 2026??Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $460 before 2026??Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $475 before 2026??Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.