Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $375 before 2026??
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x715cda3ee31734b4248fab4a45f1895edd41f07208f93fd6506bc4de58cc2a97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,738$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 68c | 1,441$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.54 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 33c | 1,000$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.67 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3e…d34ebacked No | 9c | 883.74$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,049.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked No | 68c | 619.23$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab95…c8cfbacked Yes | 4c | 279.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb2…79e2backed No | 40c | 278$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.8 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 63c | 261$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.79 | 70 | 71.4%50 W · 20 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 24c | 199.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 18c | 191.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53a…4034backed Yes | 33c | 175.9$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 34c | 157$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.34 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes | 29c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 76c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed Yes | 38c | 58.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea66…258bbacked No | 68c | 53.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 22c | 48.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $375 before 2026??this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $275 before 2026??No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $315 before 2026??No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $385 before 2026??Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $405 before 2026??Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $420 before 2026??Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $445 before 2026??Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $460 before 2026??Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $475 before 2026??Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $505 before 2026??No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.