Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $475 before 2026??
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa38b6888a42bf4fb284f49f1094a9b4fee0977763223846a0a0dc1e017269f46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 40c | 2,396$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,431.25 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed Yes | 59c | 918.44$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.98 | 232 | 53.4%124 W · 108 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b4…6709backed No | 17c | 800$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 41c | 761.14$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.8 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x665b…73babacked Yes | 68c | 730.33$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b1…799abacked No | 44c | 609.56$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 60c | 600$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8436…e2ecbacked No | 59c | 480$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 60c | 466$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.28 | 70 | 71.4%50 W · 20 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 55c | 411$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.52 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked No | 58c | 312$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a03…c37ebacked No | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x062a…51e4backed No | 72c | 277.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fae…1246backed No | 65c | 253.99$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 73c | 236$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.87 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c84…4f2dbacked No | 64c | 231.65$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.97 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b0…ceebbacked No | 61c | 210$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 13c | 169.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 121.22$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.71 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 61c | 120.6$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.16 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4db6…1d97backed No | 69c | 110.01$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 73c | 110$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3c7fbacked Yes | 48c | 94.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No | 66c | 83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 54c | 70.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked No | 56c | 65.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84f…40cabacked No | 58c | 60.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 73c | 58.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8487…c1dbbacked No | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x296b…a965backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…17e3backed No | 58c | 42.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…1815backed No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 43c | 35.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…8444backed Yes | 59c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 30.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6272…4e64backed Yes | 40c | 29.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee27…370ebacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…5428backed No | 56c | 18.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $475 before 2026??this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $275 before 2026??No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $315 before 2026??No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $375 before 2026??No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $385 before 2026??Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $405 before 2026??Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $420 before 2026??Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $445 before 2026??Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $460 before 2026??Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $505 before 2026??No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.