Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla dip to $405 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x603b037069b7e6ba5bfa84205583e1dade89cde2c01cf04674c213147a047f00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 39c | 8,720$3,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,403.99 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 66c | 4,738$3,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,618.51 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…0215backed Yes | 22c | 4,233$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.96 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…05babacked No | 53c | 3,246$1,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,523.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5a…fa77backed Yes | 32c | 3,201$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4263…edb3backed No | 73c | 3,100$2,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 54c | 2,670$1,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.49 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 37c | 2,103$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.07 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked Yes | 35c | 1,800$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 29c | 1,211$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.19 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7f…2352backed Yes | 46c | 1,200$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 6c | 1,132$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.52 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 71c | 1,105$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.13 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 75c | 1,001$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed Yes | 40c | 925$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.95 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb0…c4efbacked No | 75c | 625.7$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 623.92$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.72 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked No | 66c | 610.54$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.22 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 39c | 570.95$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 28c | 520$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.02 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed Yes | 24c | 441.17$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.88 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked Yes | 46c | 425.97$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.74 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 66c | 400$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 61c | 391$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.49 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…fdc6backed No | 64c | 383.83$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 63c | 313$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 59c | 307.4$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.76 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…ef60backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53a…4034backed Yes | 46c | 288.17$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.36 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb085…36a1backed No | 70c | 241.49$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9cf…59a4backed Yes | 49c | 228.47$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed Yes | 33c | 220$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 70c | 214.43$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.97 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f7…3fd0backed No | 57c | 210.41$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 204.56$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.04 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked No | 66c | 201.4$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.72 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 11c | 200.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 15c | 180.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 14c | 172.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b1…799abacked No | 55c | 172.55$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.55 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 74c | 172.17$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 61c | 165.5$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.59 | 75 | 77.3%58 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 36c | 162.23$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.74 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 162.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca9…f466backed No | 55c | 149.91$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.85 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 62cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…46c4backed Yes | 19c | 139.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 19c | 138.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…d89dbacked No | 33c | 132.43$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…8b21backed No | 40c | 131.51$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.59 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf230…bc77backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked Yes | 59c | 124.2$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.47 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 21c | 112.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b8…81a9backed No | 52c | 110$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd42…d1c3backed Yes | 55c | 107.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 27c | 107.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe571…0265backed No | 43c | 103.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0998…9771backed No | 50c | 100.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…262abacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc37b…9b85backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc708…ac93backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec1…f87dbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68cb…6db8backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fd…b9c8backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbba1…32c0backed No | 62c | 90.9$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 74c | 87.43$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 57c | 77$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28e9…80e4backed Yes | 21c | 73.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 49c | 67.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 98 | 35.7%35 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 15c | 66.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…e4e1backed No | 61c | 64.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe896…3af3backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca9…fd39backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…9836backed Yes | 37c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f5…a0adbacked Yes | 47c | 36.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba3…098abacked No | 58c | 25.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2e…e219backed No | 62c | 22.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9cd…ac7cbacked No | 58c | 21.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b60…b230backed No | 54c | 18.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…a180backed No | 63c | 16.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla dip to $405 in January?this page
- Will Tesla dip to $338 in January?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $375 in January?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $428 in January?Yes won
- Will Tesla dip to $465 in January?Yes won
- Will Tesla dip to $480 in January?Yes won
- Will Tesla reach $495 in January?No won
- Will Tesla reach $510 in January?No won
- Will Tesla reach $525 in January?No won
- Will Tesla reach $548 in January?No won
- Will Tesla reach $578 in January?No won
- Will Tesla reach $608 in January?No won
- Will Tesla reach $645 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.